Kaedi FC - ASC Police prediction 24 October 2026

The ASC Police vs Kaedi FC prediction for October 19, 2026, in Mauritania's Division 1 sees Kaedi FC as the slight favorite to win, but a draw is the most probable outcome. The match kicks off at 18:00 local time. Based on the latest form, head-to-head record, and odds, Kaedi FC has a 30% chance of winning, the draw stands at 45%, and ASC Police has a 25% chance.

Team Form

ASC Police enter this match in poor form, with one draw and four losses in their last five matches. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw away at Chemal on October 12, 2026. Before that, they suffered four consecutive defeats: 2-1 at ASC Gendrim, 1-0 at home to Kaedi FC, 4-1 at Nouadhibou, and 1-0 at home to Chemal. They have failed to score in three of those five games and conceded eight goals. This run of results highlights serious issues at both ends of the pitch.

Kaedi FC's form is mixed but noticeably better than their opponents. Their last five matches produced two wins, one draw, and two losses. They lost 2-0 at Nouakchott Kings on May 23, but before that they beat ASC Police 1-0 away, drew 1-1 at home with AS Douanes, won 1-0 at Ksar, and lost 2-0 at Nouadhibou in the Cup. They have kept two clean sheets in those five games and scored in three of them, showing a slightly more reliable attack.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, on May 20, 2026. In that Division 1 match, Kaedi FC secured a 1-0 away victory over ASC Police. The head-to-head record therefore stands at 0 wins for ASC Police, 0 draws, and 1 win for Kaedi FC. This gives the away side a psychological edge going into the fixture.

League Table Positions

Both teams have played one match in the current Division 1 season. ASC Police (listed as Police in the standings) sit 10th with 1 point from a 0-0 draw, while Kaedi FC are 7th also with 1 point from a 0-0 draw. Neither side has scored or conceded a goal yet. The table is extremely tight, with only three points separating the top from the bottom, so early-season form is still taking shape. Home advantage has not yet proven decisive for any side in the league.

Win Probability: ASC Police or Kaedi FC?

After analyzing the data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: ASC Police 25%, draw 45%, Kaedi FC 30%. These percentages are derived from the bookmaker odds (normalized to remove margin) and adjusted for recent form and head-to-head results. The raw odds implied a 31.3% home win, 46.2% draw, and 22.5% away win. However, ASC Police's terrible run of four losses in five games and Kaedi FC's superior head-to-head record shift the balance slightly toward the away side. Kaedi FC's 30% win probability makes them the more likely winner if the match does not end in a draw. So, who will win? The data suggests a draw is the safest bet, but Kaedi FC has a clear edge over ASC Police.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the 1X2 market show a draw as the most favored outcome. One bookmaker offers 2.88 for an ASC Police win, 1.95 for the draw, and 4.00 for a Kaedi FC victory. Other bookies have similar pricing, with the draw consistently around 1.95–2.92. These odds reflect the expectation of a low-scoring, tight contest. Our ASC Police vs Kaedi FC prediction is that a draw is the most probable result, but if you are looking for a winner, Kaedi FC holds the edge. Betting tips would lean towards the draw or a Kaedi FC win with caution, given the teams' recent struggles in front of goal. The match is likely to see under 2.5 total goals, as both teams have been involved in low-scoring affairs.