Ascoli - Empoli prediction 17 October 2026

Our Ascoli vs Empoli prediction for October 17 is that Ascoli are clear favourites with a 55% win probability. This Serie B clash at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca kicks off at 14:00, and the home side’s superior form and league position make them the most likely winners.

Team Form

Ascoli’s last five matches have produced two wins, two draws and one defeat. They are unbeaten at home this season, with victories over US Avellino 1912 (3‑1) and Benevento (1‑0), plus a 1‑1 draw against Carrarese. The only loss in that run came away at Padova (0‑1). Across all six league games, Ascoli have scored seven goals and conceded just four.

Empoli, in contrast, are struggling. Their last five results read L‑L‑L‑W‑L, with the sole win a 1‑0 away success at Carrarese. Home defeats against Palermo (2‑4) and Arezzo (0‑1), and away losses at Modena (1‑2) and Mantova (1‑3), highlight deep problems at both ends of the pitch.

Head-to-Head Record

Over eight previous meetings in all competitions, Ascoli have won two, Empoli five, with one draw. However, the more recent head-to-head tells a different story. In the last four unique encounters since 2019, Ascoli have won twice (2‑0 in 2021, 1‑0 in 2020), drawn once (1‑1 in 2020), and lost only once (1‑2 in 2019). That gives Ascoli a psychological edge going into this fixture.

League Table Positions

Ascoli sit 4th in Serie B with 11 points from six matches, just five points behind leaders Palermo. They have the fourth‑best home record, collecting seven points from three games at the Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Empoli are outside the top 12 in the overall standings, and their away form has been especially poor – they have lost two of their last three on the road.

Win Probability: Ascoli or Empoli?

Based on the available odds, team form, head‑to‑head data and league positions, Ascoli have a 55% chance of winning this match. The draw is estimated at 27%, while Empoli’s win probability stands at only 18%. The calculation starts from the average bookmaker odds (1.93 home, 2.20 draw, 3.75 away), with upward adjustments for Ascoli’s unbeaten home start and Empoli’s run of four losses in five outings. The gap in the table and recent H2H results further strengthen the case for a home victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Ascoli as the favourite: the best available odds across three bookies average around 1.93 for a home win, 2.20 for the draw, and 3.75 for an Empoli away win. Taking all the stats into account, the most likely outcome is an Ascoli win. Our Ascoli vs Empoli prediction is therefore a home victory, with the draw as the main danger for bettors looking at the 1X2 market.