Irtysh Pavlodar - Astana prediction 14 October 2026
Irtysh Pavlodar
Astana
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Ordabasy | 29 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 59:21 | +38 | 68 |
| 2 |  Kairat Almaty | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 57:20 | +37 | 63 |
| 3 | Astana | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 46:29 | +17 | 52 |
| 4 |  Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 45:37 | +8 | 51 |
| 5 |  Aktobe | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 42:35 | +7 | 45 |
| 6 |  Yelimay Semey | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 40:38 | +2 | 44 |
| 7 |  Tobol Kostanay | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40:39 | +1 | 41 |
| 8 |  Ulytau | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:35 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 |  FK Zhenys | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 30:39 | -9 | 33 |
| 10 |  Kaspiy Aktau | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 31:42 | -11 | 33 |
| 11 |  Kyzylzhar | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 29:41 | -12 | 30 |
| 12 |  Atyrau | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | 22:32 | -10 | 27 |
| 13 |  Altay Izmir | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 28:39 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 26:42 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 |  Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 29:47 | -18 | 26 |
| 16 |  Kaisar Kyzylorda | 28 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 24:39 | -15 | 24 |
Irtysh Pavlodar vs Astana Prediction (Oct 14)
Our Irtysh Pavlodar vs Astana prediction looks ahead to the Premier League match on Oct 14. Based on the odds, league standings and head-to-head record, Astana enters this game as the favorite with a 45% win probability, while Irtysh Pavlodar has a 27% chance of winning and the draw is at 28%.
Team Form
Irtysh Pavlodar has shown mixed form in their last five matches (W, W, L, W, L). At home they beat Okzhetpes Kokshetau (2-1) and Aktobe (2-1) but lost to Tobol Kostanay (0-2), while their away results include a win at FC Altai Oskemen (2-1) and a loss at Zhetysu Taldykorgan (0-1).
Astana has recorded W, L, W, W, D in their last five. They won at home against Kairat Almaty (1-0) and Yelimay Semey (4-0), and claimed an away win at Atyrau (3-2). However, they lost at Ordabasy (0-1) and drew at Kyzylzhar (1-1). Astanaโs away form remains inconsistent.
Head-to-Head Record
These teams have met 17 times. Astana dominates the head-to-head with 12 wins, while Irtysh Pavlodar has won only 3 matches and 2 ended in draws. The two 2026 meetings saw a 2-0 home win for Astana in June and a 0-0 draw at Irtysh in July. That recent draw offers some hope for the hosts, but the overall H2H heavily favors the away side.
League Table Positions
Astana sits 3rd in the Premier League standings with 45 points from 24 games (13 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses), while Irtysh Pavlodar is 11th with 26 points from 25 matches (6 wins, 8 draws, 11 losses). The 19-point gap underlines Astanaโs superiority, though their away record (2 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses) shows they are not invincible on the road.
Win Probability: Irtysh Pavlodar or Astana?
Based on the available odds, head-to-head history and recent form, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Irtysh Pavlodar win โ 27%, draw โ 28%, Astana win โ 45%. Bookmaker odds of 2.95 (home), 3.30 (draw) and 2.18 (away) give Astana an implied 41.7% chance before adjusting for the vig. Astanaโs dominance in H2H (12 wins in 17 meetings) and their higher league position justify bumping their probability to 45%. Irtyshโs two recent home wins keep their win chance at 27%, while the draw gets 28% due to both teamsโ fluctuating results. Astana is the more likely winner, but a close contest is expected.
Odds & Match Prediction
Prematch odds for the 1X2 market are: Irtysh Pavlodar win โ 2.95, draw โ 3.30, Astana win โ 2.18. Bookmakers clearly see Astana as the favorite. Considering the stats, our prediction is that Astana should edge this encounter, but the draw cannot be ruled out given Irtyshโs ability to win at home. A low-scoring game is likely, with a 1-0 or 2-1 away win the most probable scorelines.
Irtysh Pavlodar vs Astana โ FAQ
- Who will win Irtysh Pavlodar vs Astana?
- Astana is the most likely winner with a 45% win probability. Irtysh Pavlodar has a 27% chance, and the draw is at 28%. The prediction favors Astana due to their dominant head-to-head record (12 wins in 17 meetings) and stronger league position.
- What is the win probability for Astana?
- Astana has a 45% chance of winning the match. This figure is based on the bookmaker odds (away win at 2.18) adjusted upward to reflect Astanaโs 12 head-to-head wins and 3rd place in the Premier League, against Irtyshโs 11th place.
- When is the Irtysh Pavlodar vs Astana match?
- The match is scheduled for Oct 14 at 11:00 local time. It is a Kazakhstan Premier League fixture between Irtysh Pavlodar (home) and Astana (away).
- What are the odds for the match?
- Prematch odds for the full-time result are: Irtysh Pavlodar win at 2.95, a draw at 3.30, and an Astana win at 2.18. These odds make Astana the clear bookmaker favorite.
- How did the teams perform in their last head-to-head matches?
- In the two 2026 meetings, Astana won 2-0 at home in June and the match ended 0-0 in Irtysh in July. Overall, Astana has won 12 of the 17 previous encounters, while Irtysh has won only 3.