Athletic Bilbao - Alaves prediction 19 September 2026
Athletic Bilbao
AlavesAthletic Bilbao
GetafeLevante UDAthletic BilbaoValenciaAthletic BilbaoRayo VallecanoAthletic BilbaoReal SociedadAthletic BilbaoAthletic BilbaoAlavesLevante UDAthletic BilbaoAthletic BilbaoElcheAthletic BilbaoAtletico MadridCelta VigoAthletic BilbaoBarcelonaAthletic BilbaoAthletic BilbaoSevillaAtalantaAthletic BilbaoMarseilleAthletic BilbaoBurgos CFAthletic BilbaoAlavesMalagaCelta VigoAlavesAlavesAtletico MadridAthletic BilbaoAlavesAlavesValenciaRacing SantanderAlavesAlavesOsasunaAlavesVillarrealRayo VallecanoAlavesAlavesGetafeRacing SantanderAlavesAlavesCastellonGironaAlavesAlavesEibarAlavesRayo Vallecano- 45'EventJ. Louis-Jean
- 62'EventMikel Jauregizar
- 62'EventI. Williams
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40:11 | +29 | 27 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20:8 | +12 | 25 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25:10 | +15 | 24 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:16 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 |  Athletic Club | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:9 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10:7 | +3 | 12 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 |  Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 |
| 13 |  Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15:26 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 |  Levante | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:19 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 |  Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 |  Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:20 | -8 | 9 |
| 17 |  Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 |  Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:14 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7:17 | -10 | 6 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7:19 | -12 | 5 |
Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves Prediction (Sep 19)
The Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves prediction for September 19, 2026, points towards a home victory at San Mamรฉs Stadium. This Primera clash kicks off at 14:15, with Athletic Bilbao holding a 52% win probability based on odds, form, and home advantage.
Team Form
Athletic Bilbao's recent form is mixed, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches (D, W, W, L, L). At home, they drew 1-1 with Elche and beat Atletico Madrid 3-0, but also suffered a 1-3 defeat to Sevilla. Alaves have an identical pattern in their last five (L, L, W, W, D). Their away form is a concern, with back-to-back losses at Racing Santander (1-2) and Valencia (0-1), though they did win 1-0 at Villarreal earlier in the season.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record is remarkably balanced: 10 Athletic Bilbao wins, 10 draws, and 9 Alaves wins in their history. The last five meetings show Alaves with a slight edge, winning two (including a 1-0 at San Mamรฉs in September 2025), Athletic Bilbao winning two, and one draw. The most recent encounter saw Athletic Bilbao win 4-2 away in May 2026.
League Table Positions
Alaves sit 6th in the Primera table with 10 points from 6 games (3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Athletic Bilbao, listed as Athletic Club in the standings, are 9th with 7 points from 5 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Alaves have a strong home record (2nd in the home table) but are unranked in the top 8 away. Athletic Bilbao are 8th in the away table with 3 points from 2 games.
Win Probability: Athletic Bilbao or Alaves?
Based on the available odds and team performance data, the win probabilities are calculated as follows: Athletic Bilbao has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 29%, and Alaves has a 19% chance. This calculation uses the inverse of the best available odds (1.69 for home, 2.32 for draw, 5.80 for away), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and adjusted for Athletic Bilbao's home advantage and Alaves' poor away form. Athletic Bilbao are the clear favorites to win.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Athletic Bilbao as the favorite, with the best home win odds at 1.69. The draw is priced around 2.32, and an Alaves away win is as high as 5.80. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is an Athletic Bilbao victory. Alaves' recent away defeats and Athletic Bilbao's strong home performance against Atletico Madrid support this prediction.
Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves โ FAQ
- Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves?
- Athletic Bilbao are the favorites to win, with a calculated 52% probability. Alaves have a 19% chance, and the draw is at 29%. This is based on odds, home advantage, and Alaves' recent away losses.
- What is the win probability for Athletic Bilbao?
- Athletic Bilbao has a 52% chance of winning. This is derived from the best available home win odds of 1.69, adjusted for bookmaker margin and their strong home form against top teams like Atletico Madrid.
- When is the Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves match?
- The match is on September 19, 2026, at 14:15 local time. It is a Primera fixture, played at the San Mamรฉs Stadium in Spain.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The best pre-match odds are 1.69 for an Athletic Bilbao win, 2.32 for a draw, and 5.80 for an Alaves win. These odds indicate a strong favorite in Athletic Bilbao.
- What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Bilbao and Alaves?
- The overall head-to-head record shows 10 Athletic Bilbao wins, 10 draws, and 9 Alaves wins. In their last five meetings, both teams have won twice, with one draw.