Levante UD - Athletic Bilbao prediction 21 October 2026

The Levante UD vs Athletic Bilbao prediction for October 21, 2026, in Spain's Primera Division points to Athletic Bilbao as the favorite with a 45% win probability. Levante UD, despite playing at Estadi Ciutat de València, has only a 20% chance, while the draw is estimated at 35%.

Team Form

Levante UD's recent form is poor. In their last five matches, they recorded three draws and two losses (D, D, L, D, L). They drew 1-1 away at Deportivo La Coruna, 3-3 at home to Sevilla, and 0-0 at home against Athletic Bilbao, but lost 3-1 at Villarreal and 4-2 at home to Barcelona. No wins in five highlights their struggle to close out games.

Athletic Bilbao arrives unbeaten in their last five away matches (D, D, W, D, D). They drew 0-0 at Valencia, 0-0 at Rayo Vallecano, and 0-0 at home to Alaves, but secured a 1-0 friendly win at Real Sociedad. Their defense has been solid, conceding just one goal in those five outings, though scoring remains a challenge.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Athletic Bilbao. In 23 previous meetings, Levante UD has won only 2, with 6 draws and 15 Athletic Bilbao victories. The last five encounters underline this dominance: a 0-0 draw on Sep 16, 2026, a 4-2 Athletic win on Feb 8, 2026, a 2-0 Athletic win on Nov 29, 2025, a 3-1 Athletic win on Mar 7, 2022, and a 0-0 cup draw on Nov 19, 2021. Levante UD has failed to beat Athletic Bilbao in any of those matches.

League Table Positions

Athletic Bilbao (listed as Athletic Club) sits 11th in the Primera table with 9 points from 7 games (2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 7 and conceded 6. Levante UD is outside the top 12, indicating a lower position and fewer points. The gap in standings further supports Athletic Bilbao's edge.

Win Probability: Levante UD or Athletic Bilbao?

Based on bookmaker odds, recent form, and head-to-head data, the win probabilities are: Levante UD 20%, draw 35%, Athletic Bilbao 45%. The odds implied a close contest (around 26% home, 37% draw, 37% away after removing the margin), but Levante's winless run and Athletic's historical dominance adjust the numbers in favor of the visitors. Athletic Bilbao is the more likely winner, though a draw remains a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' 1X2 odds for this match vary. One set shows a Levante UD win at 3.40, a draw at 3.30, and an Athletic Bilbao win at 2.50. These odds reflect Athletic Bilbao as the slight favorite. Considering the stats, the safest prediction is an Athletic Bilbao win or a draw, with a low-scoring affair likely given both teams' recent defensive records. Based on the data, Athletic Bilbao has the upper hand.