Queretaro Women - Atlas Women prediction 26 September 2026

Queretaro Women vs Atlas Women prediction: On Sep 26, 2026, Queretaro Women host Atlas Women in a Liga MX Women fixture in Mexico. Based on our analysis of team form, head-to-head records, and league standings, Atlas Women are the favorites with a 55% win probability, while a draw sits at 25% and a home win at 20%.

Team Form

Queretaro Women's recent form shows inconsistency. In their last five matches, they have recorded two wins and three losses. Their victories came on the road: a 6-2 away win against Puebla Women on Sep 13 and a 1-0 away win at Club Leon Women on Aug 18. However, home form has been a concern, with back-to-back home defeats — 0-2 to Cruz Azul Women on Sep 6 and a heavy 0-4 loss to Monterrey Women on Aug 30. An away 0-5 loss to Unam Pumas Women on Aug 22 further underlines defensive frailties.

Atlas Women's last five results are slightly more balanced: a draw, two wins, and two losses. They managed an impressive 2-2 draw away against league leaders Club America Women on Sep 20. Their wins came at home — 1-0 against Atlante FC Women on Sep 12 and 2-0 against Tijuana Women on Aug 25. The losses were a 0-4 home defeat to Chivas Guadalajara Women and a 1-6 thrashing away at Atletico San Luis Women on Aug 31. Overall, Atlas Women have shown they can compete with top sides but are vulnerable on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

This fixture heavily favors the away side. In the three previous meetings between Queretaro Women and Atlas Women, Atlas Women have won every single match. The most recent encounter on Mar 13, 2026, ended 1-0 to Atlas Women. Earlier, on Sep 6, 2025, Atlas Women secured a dominant 6-2 victory, and on Mar 19, 2025, they won 1-0. No draws have occurred, and Queretaro Women have yet to score more than 2 goals in any of these games.

League Table Positions

In the Liga MX Women standings, Atlas Women currently sit 12th with 9 points from 8 matches (2 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses, 9 goals scored, 17 conceded). Queretaro Women are not present in the top 12 of the standings, suggesting they are lower in the table. This positional gap, combined with Queretaro Women's recent heavy home defeats, gives Atlas Women a clear advantage in this matchup.

Win Probability: Queretaro Women or Atlas Women?

We have calculated the outcome probabilities for this match based on the available statistics. Atlas Women are given a 55% chance of winning. A draw is estimated at 25%, while Queretaro Women's win probability stands at 20%. The reasoning is clear: Atlas Women have a perfect head-to-head record, a slightly more stable recent form (including a draw at Club America), and a higher league position. Queretaro Women's poor defensive record at home further reduces their chances. Therefore, Atlas Women are the most likely winner, but a draw cannot be ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmaker odds for this match are not provided in the current data. However, considering the statistical picture, bookmakers would likely see Atlas Women as the favorite. The perfect head-to-head record and the table gap are strong indicators. Our prediction aligns with this: Atlas Women to win. For betting tips, backing Atlas Women to win or the double chance could be sensible, but always consult the latest odds and team news before placing a bet. The match could see a low-scoring affair given Queretaro's home struggles and Atlas's defensive solidity against mid-to-lower teams.