Atletico Astorga - Ourense CF prediction 10 October 2026

Atletico Astorga vs Ourense CF prediction for the Segunda Federacion clash on October 10, 2026. Based on the latest form and bookmaker odds, Ourense CF enters the match as the clear favorite with a 50% win probability, while Atletico Astorga struggles at home with just a 20% chance.

Team Form

Atletico Astorga's recent results show a team in poor shape. They have lost four of their last five matches, with the only win coming at home against Marino Luanco (3-0). Defensive issues are evident, conceding in all but one of those games.

• Oct 3: Atletico Astorga 0-1 Amorebieta (L)
• Sep 26: Sestao River 2-0 Atletico Astorga (L)
• Sep 19: Atletico Astorga 3-0 Marino Luanco (W)
• Sep 13: CD Basconia 3-2 Atletico Astorga (L)
• Sep 5: Atletico Astorga 0-1 Club Portugalete (L)

Ourense CF, on the other hand, arrives in strong form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. Notably, they have won both away matches in that span, keeping clean sheets each time.

• Oct 4: Ourense CF 0-0 Arosa (D)
• Sep 26: Amorebieta 0-1 Ourense CF (W)
• Sep 19: Ourense CF 0-2 Eibar B (L)
• Sep 13: Marino Luanco 0-2 Ourense CF (W)
• Sep 6: Ourense CF 2-1 CD Basconia (W)

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous head-to-head meetings between Atletico Astorga and Ourense CF. This will be the first competitive encounter between the two sides.

Win Probability: Atletico Astorga or Ourense CF?

After normalizing the bookmaker odds to remove the margin and adjusting for recent team form and home advantage, the outcome probabilities are:

• Atletico Astorga win: 20%
• Draw: 30%
• Ourense CF win: 50%

The base implied probabilities from the two available odds sets gave Ourense CF a slight edge, but their impressive away record (two wins, no goals conceded) and Atletico Astorga's home struggles (one win in three home games, two losses) tilt the balance heavily in favor of the visitors. Ourense CF is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer differing views on this Segunda Federacion fixture. One bookmaker prices a home win at 3.75, the draw at 2.05, and an away win at 2.75. Another lists the odds as 3.10 for Atletico Astorga, 3.05 for the draw, and 2.10 for Ourense CF. The shorter away odds in the second set reflect the visitors' superior form.

Based on the stats, Ourense CF is the predicted winner. Their consistent away performances and Atletico Astorga's defensive frailties make an away victory the most probable outcome. A draw cannot be ruled out, but the value lies with the visitors.