Atletico El Vigia - Zamora FC Barinas II prediction 30 September 2026

Our Atletico El Vigia vs Zamora FC Barinas II prediction for the Segunda Division match on Sep 30, 2026, points to a closely fought encounter. Atletico El Vigia is the slight favorite with a 35% chance of winning, while the draw stands at 35% and Zamora FC Barinas II has a 30% probability. The match kicks off at 20:30 local time in Venezuela's second tier.

Team Form

Atletico El Vigia's last five matches show three wins, one draw, and one loss (D, W, L, W, W). They drew 1-1 away to Academia Puerto Cabello Reserves on Sep 25, beat La Real Frontera 3-1 at home, lost 3-0 away to Deportivo Lara, then secured home wins over Yaracuyanos (1-0) and Club Atletico Barinas (2-1). Across these five games, Atletico El Vigia scored 7 goals and conceded 6. Their home form is particularly strong with three consecutive victories.

Zamora FC Barinas II have four wins and one loss in their last five (W, W, L, W, W). They defeated Club Atletico Barinas 2-1 at home, won 3-0 away at Urena, lost 0-2 at home to Barquisimeto SC, then beat Academia Puerto Cabello Reserves 3-0 and La Real Frontera 2-0 away. Zamora FC Barinas II netted 10 times and conceded only 3 in these outings. The away side has been impressive on the road, winning their last two away matches without conceding.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record favours Atletico El Vigia, who are unbeaten in three meetings (1 win, 2 draws). The most recent clash on Aug 15, 2026, saw Atletico El Vigia win 2-0 away at Zamora FC Barinas II. Earlier in 2026, they drew 1-1 in May and 0-0 in March. Zamora FC Barinas II have yet to beat Atletico El Vigia.

League Table Positions

In the overall Segunda Division standings, Zamora FC Barinas II sit 5th with 40 points from 27 matches, while Atletico El Vigia are 10th with 34 points from 28 games. Zamora have a game in hand and a six-point advantage. Atletico El Vigia have scored 32 goals and conceded 45, while Zamora FC Barinas II have 42 goals for and 36 against. The away side also boasts the 3rd-best away record in the league with 21 points from 13 away games (6 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses). Atletico El Vigia's home record is not among the top eight, but their recent home results suggest they are tough to beat at their own ground.

Win Probability: Atletico El Vigia or Zamora FC Barinas II?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Atletico El Vigia 35%, draw 35%, Zamora FC Barinas II 30%. The raw odds implied a home win probability of 29%, draw 40%, and away win 31% after removing the margin. We adjusted these figures to reflect Atletico's H2H dominance and home advantage. Zamora's higher league position and solid away performances keep them close. Overall, this match is too close to call, but Atletico El Vigia holds a marginal advantage.

Atletico El Vigia vs Zamora FC Barinas II Odds & Prediction

The best available odds for the match are: home win 3.10, draw 2.25, away win 2.88. Bookmakers see the draw as the most probable result. Our prediction aligns with a tight contest: a draw is a strong possibility, but Atletico El Vigia's home advantage and H2H edge could tip the balance. We predict a draw or a narrow win for Atletico El Vigia.