Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Paysandu FC prediction 17 October 2026

Atletico Fenix Montevideo vs Paysandu FC prediction for October 17, 2026, sees the home side as the favorite with a 55% win probability. The Segunda Division match kicks off at 18:00, with Paysandu FC having a 17% chance to pull off an upset and a 28% possibility of a draw.

Team Form

Atletico Fenix Montevideo’s last five matches:

• Huracan FC 0-0 Atletico Fenix (Oct 11) – D
• Atletico Fenix 2-0 Uruguay Montevideo (Oct 4) – W
• Oriental La Paz 3-2 Atletico Fenix (Sep 26) – L
• Atletico Fenix 1-1 Colon FC (Sep 19) – D
• River Plate Montevideo 0-1 Atletico Fenix (Sep 13) – W

The home team has collected 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in that run, scoring 6 goals and conceding 4. At home this season, Fenix is unbeaten with 2 wins and 1 draw, netting 7 goals.

Paysandu FC’s recent form:

• Paysandu FC 2-1 Rentistas (Oct 10) – W
• Miramar Misiones 1-0 Paysandu FC (Oct 3) – L
• Paysandu FC 2-2 Tacuarembo FC (Sep 28) – D
• Plaza Colonia 1-1 Paysandu FC (Sep 19) – D
• Paysandu FC 0-1 La Luz (Sep 12) – L

The visitors have managed just 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats in their last five, with 4 goals scored and 6 conceded. Their away results include a 1-0 loss at Miramar Misiones and a 1-1 draw at Plaza Colonia.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met only once before in the Segunda Division. On July 13, 2026, Paysandu FC defeated Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1-0 at home. That result gives Paysandu a 1-0-0 edge in the head-to-head, though the sample is too small to draw firm conclusions.

League Table Positions

Atletico Fenix Montevideo sits 3rd in the Segunda Division overall standings with 11 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). They have scored 13 goals and conceded 7, showing a strong attacking output. At home, they are ranked 3rd with 7 points from 3 games (2 wins, 1 draw).

Paysandu FC is 11th in the table with just 4 points from 6 fixtures (1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses). They have scored only 4 goals while conceding 7. Their away form has been poor—only one point from their last two road trips (0-1 loss to Miramar Misiones, 1-1 draw with Plaza Colonia).

Win Probability: Atletico Fenix Montevideo or Paysandu FC?

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has a 55% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Paysandu FC has a 17% chance. These probabilities are derived from the teams’ current form, league positions, and home advantage. Despite Paysandu’s only H2H win, the home side’s solid home record (2W-1D-0L) and significantly higher league standing tilt the balance in their favor. The visitors’ struggle to score (4 goals in 6 matches) makes an away win less likely, but the 28% draw probability underlines that this could be a tight contest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have not yet released odds for this Segunda Division clash. However, based on the stats, Atletico Fenix Montevideo is the clear favorite. Their strong home form and superior league position suggest they are likely to secure the win. Our predicted outcome is a home victory, but the draw remains a plausible result given Paysandu’s recent tendency to split points (draws in two of their last three away matches).