Atletico Mineiro MG - Cruzeiro MG prediction 29 October 2026

Atletico Mineiro MG vs Cruzeiro MG prediction for the Cup second leg on Sep 02, 2026. The tie is finely balanced after a 1-1 draw in the first leg, and our analysis gives Atletico Mineiro a 40% chance of winning, with a draw at 30% and Cruzeiro at 30%.

Team Form

Atletico Mineiro MG are unbeaten in their last five matches (W2 D3). They drew 1-1 away at Cruzeiro in the first leg, followed by a 0-0 draw at Internacional RS, a 2-2 home draw with Red Bull Bragantino SP, a 3-0 home win over Gremio RS, and a 1-0 away win at Red Bull Bragantino SP. The defence has kept two clean sheets in that run, while the attack scored seven goals.

Cruzeiro MG's recent form is mixed (W2 D2 L1). After the 1-1 home draw with Atletico, they beat Flamengo RJ 2-1 at home, lost 1-2 away to Flamengo in the Copa Libertadores, won 2-1 at Corinthians SP, and drew 1-1 at home with Flamengo RJ. They have scored in every game but conceded in four of the five.

Head-to-Head Record

Overall, Atletico Mineiro MG lead the head-to-head with 17 wins, 12 draws, and 11 wins for Cruzeiro MG. In the last five meetings, Atletico won twice, Cruzeiro once, and two ended level. The most recent clash was the first leg of this Cup tie on Aug 26, 2026, which finished 1-1. The last match at Arena MRV saw Atletico win 2-1 in January 2026.

• Aug 26, 2026: Cruzeiro MG 1-1 Atletico Mineiro MG (Cup)
• May 03, 2026: Cruzeiro MG 1-3 Atletico Mineiro MG (Serie A)
• Mar 08, 2026: Cruzeiro MG 1-0 Atletico Mineiro MG (Campeonato Mineiro)
• Jan 25, 2026: Atletico Mineiro MG 2-1 Cruzeiro MG (Campeonato Mineiro)
• Oct 16, 2025: Atletico Mineiro MG 1-1 Cruzeiro MG (Serie A)

Win Probability: Atletico Mineiro MG or Cruzeiro MG?

We calculated the probabilities using the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head data. The average bookmaker odds (home 2.57, draw 2.14, away 3.41) imply a tight contest with the draw priced as the most likely single outcome. After adjusting for Atletico's home advantage, their unbeaten run, and the historical edge at Arena MRV, the probabilities are:

• Atletico Mineiro MG win: 40%
• Draw: 30%
• Cruzeiro MG win: 30%

Atletico Mineiro MG has a 40% chance of winning, making them the most probable winner, but a draw or an away win are both realistic outcomes in this evenly matched cup tie.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer a range of odds for this match. The best available prices are around 2.70 for a home win, 2.96 for the draw, and 3.75 for an away win. One bookmaker lists the draw as low as 1.82, underlining how evenly matched these sides are. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards a home win or a draw. The first leg ended 1-1, so a low-scoring affair could be on the cards again. Always check the latest team news before placing any bets.