Gremio RS - Atletico Mineiro MG prediction 1 November 2026

Our Gremio RS vs Atletico Mineiro MG prediction for this Cup match on Nov 1, 2026 at 21:30 is a tight contest with a draw being the most likely result. Gremio RS has a 35% chance of winning, while Atletico Mineiro MG has a 30% chance, and the draw stands at 35%. Read on for the full Gremio RS vs Atletico Mineiro MG prediction, including team form, head-to-head record, and the latest odds.

Team Form

Gremio RS come into this match in poor form, without a win in their last five outings (L, D, D, D, L). At home, they lost 2-4 to Cruzeiro MG on Oct 18, drew 1-1 with Internacional RS on Oct 11, and drew 0-0 with Palmeiras SP on Sep 20. Their only other recent home result was a 1-1 draw at Remo PA on Oct 7, and a 2-3 loss at Botafogo RJ on Sep 16. The team has struggled to convert draws into wins, scoring just 6 goals in those five matches.

Atletico Mineiro MG, on the other hand, have been in strong form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches (L, W, W, W, D). Away from home, they lost 0-2 at Montevideo City Torque in the Copa Sudamericana on Oct 21, but previously won 2-1 at Santos SP on Oct 11 and drew 2-2 at Atletico Paranaense PR on Oct 9. At home, they beat Coritiba PR 1-0 and Montevideo City Torque 3-0. This run includes three clean sheets, highlighting their defensive solidity.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favors Gremio RS, with 14 wins compared to Atletico Mineiro MG's 5, and just 1 draw in 20 meetings. In the last five encounters, Gremio have won three and Atletico two. The most recent clash on Aug 16, 2026 saw Atletico win 3-0 at home, but Gremio won the previous encounter at Arena do Grêmio 2-1 on Feb 26, 2026. The only other meeting at this venue in the last five was a 2-1 Gremio win on Mar 28, 2025.

Win Probability: Gremio RS or Atletico Mineiro MG?

After analyzing the odds, recent form, and head-to-head record, our Gremio RS vs Atletico Mineiro MG prediction assigns the following win probabilities: Gremio RS win – 35%, draw – 35%, Atletico Mineiro MG win – 30%. The bookmakers' odds imply a similar tight contest, with the draw priced as the most likely single outcome. Gremio's home advantage and historical dominance are offset by their current poor form, while Atletico's strong recent results make them dangerous. Overall, this match is too close to call, but a draw appears the safest bet.

Gremio RS vs Atletico Mineiro MG Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers have set the following average odds: Gremio RS win at 2.55, draw at 2.22, and Atletico Mineiro MG win at 3.21. The odds from four bookmakers show a range: home win 2.45–2.74, draw 1.92–2.92, away win 2.88–3.60. These odds reflect the competitive nature of this Cup fixture at the Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre. Based on the stats, our Gremio RS vs Atletico Mineiro MG prediction is a draw, with both teams likely to score. Gremio have drawn three of their last five, and Atletico have drawn one of their last five away games. A 1-1 scoreline is a plausible outcome.