Atletico Nacional Medellin - Deportivo Pasto prediction 23 October 2026

The Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto prediction for this Primera A clash on Oct 23 at 02:00 points to a strong home favorite. Based on league table dominance, head-to-head history, and recent form, Atletico Nacional Medellin has a 72% win probability, the draw sits at 19%, and Deportivo Pasto has a 9% chance of an upset.

Team Form

Atletico Nacional Medellin enters this match in excellent shape. Their last five results are W, W, D, D, W. They recently thrashed Boyaca Chico 4-1 away and beat EDP Independiente Medellin 3-2 in the Cup. A 0-0 draw against Deportivo Pasto on Oct 11 and another 0-0 with Deportes Tolima were the only minor stumbles, before a convincing 3-1 home win over CD Junior FC on Oct 1.

Deportivo Pasto's form is more inconsistent: L, D, D, L, W. They lost 0-1 at home to Alianza Petrolera on Oct 20, drew 0-0 with Atletico Nacional Medellin and Fortaleza Zipaquira, suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat at Boyaca Chico, and managed a 1-0 home win against Once Caldas on Sep 20. The away side has struggled to score consistently.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical matchup heavily favors the home side. In 27 meetings, Atletico Nacional Medellin has 18 wins, Deportivo Pasto has 3, and 6 ended in draws. The most recent encounter was a 0-0 draw on Oct 11, 2026. Before that, Atletico Nacional Medellin won 2-1 away on Mar 30, 2026, and drew 2-2 away in Oct 2025. At home, Atletico Nacional Medellin has been dominant, including a 3-0 win in Apr 2025 and a 2-1 victory in Dec 2024.

League Table Positions

Atletico Nacional Medellin sits 1st overall with 40 points from 19 matches (13 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses), scoring 35 goals and conceding only 15. At home, they are perfect: 1st with 25 points from 9 games (8 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), 22 goals scored and just 3 conceded.

Deportivo Pasto is 3rd overall with 34 points (10 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses, 29 goals for, 25 against). Away from home, they rank 3rd with 14 points from 9 games (4 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses), but have conceded 17 goals on the road. The 6-point gap and the stark contrast in home/away strength underline the favorite's advantage.

Win Probability: Atletico Nacional Medellin or Deportivo Pasto?

Calculating from the available odds (best home win 1.28, draw 2.50, away win 7.25) and removing the bookmaker margin, the implied probabilities are approximately 72% for an Atletico Nacional Medellin win, 19% for a draw, and 9% for a Deportivo Pasto victory. This is reinforced by the home team's flawless home record (8W-1D-0L), their 18-3 head-to-head lead, and Deportivo Pasto's recent away struggles. Atletico Nacional Medellin has a 72% chance of winning, the draw is at 19%, and Deportivo Pasto has a 9% chance.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Atletico Nacional Medellin as the clear favorite. The best available home win odds are 1.28, the draw is priced around 2.50, and an away win reaches up to 12.50 in some markets. Based on the stats, the home side's perfect Estadio Atanasio Girardot record, and the H2H dominance, the most likely outcome is a home victory. A low-scoring match is possible given the recent 0-0 draw, but Atletico Nacional Medellin's attacking numbers at home (22 goals in 9 games) suggest they will break through.