Atletico Sucre - Club Deportivo Libertad FC prediction 23 August 2026

The Atletico Sucre vs Club Deportivo Libertad FC prediction for their Copa Simon Bolivar clash on August 23, 2026, at 19:00 points to a home victory. Based on the available odds, team form, and the lack of any head-to-head record, Atletico Sucre enters the match as the clear favorite with a 56% win probability. A draw sits at 24%, while the struggling away side has just a 20% chance of an upset.

Team Form

Atletico Sucre's last five Copa Simon Bolivar outings produced one win, three draws, and one loss. That sequence reads: a 0-0 away draw at Fancesa, a 1-1 home draw against Atletico Juniors, a heavy 0-3 away defeat at Universitario San Francisco Xavier de Sucre, a narrow 1-0 home win over Fancesa, and a 2-2 away draw at Atletico Juniors. The attack has been inconsistent, but defensive solidity at home (just two goals conceded in the last three home matches) offers some confidence.

Club Deportivo Libertad FC's form, by contrast, is alarming. Their last five matches delivered four defeats and a solitary draw: a 3-3 home draw with CA Independiente Cbba, a 4-5 away loss at Tiquipaya, a 0-1 away loss at Club Tigres FC, a 0-1 away loss to CA Independiente Cbba, and a 1-3 home loss to Tiquipaya. The team has leaked goals — 14 in five games — and has failed to win any of those fixtures. That poor run heavily shapes the win probability calculation.

Head-to-Head Record

No previous meetings between Atletico Sucre and Club Deportivo Libertad FC exist in the Copa Simon Bolivar. This will be their first competitive encounter, so the head-to-head record is blank and offers no historical guide for the prediction. The outcome must be inferred entirely from current form and market odds.

Win Probability: Atletico Sucre or Club Deportivo Libertad FC?

Bookmaker odds (home 1.67, draw 4.33, away 3.60) imply base probabilities of 54.1% for a home win, 20.9% for a draw, and 25.0% for an away win after removing the margin. Adjusting for the sharp contrast in recent form — Sucre’s balanced if unspectacular results versus Libertad FC’s four straight losses and leaky defense — the home win probability rises to 56%. The draw sits at 24%, and the away win drops to 20%. These figures reflect the home advantage and the visitors' poor traveling record. Atletico Sucre has the higher chance, but the 24% draw probability suggests a stalemate cannot be ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

The 1X2 market lists Atletico Sucre at 1.67, the draw at 4.33, and Club Deportivo Libertad FC at 3.60. The odds reinforce Sucre’s favorite status, although the draw price of 4.33 hints at the uncertainty that comes with a team that has drawn three of its last five. Our Atletico Sucre vs Club Deportivo Libertad FC prediction is a home win, but bettors looking for betting tips may note that the “double chance” on the home side or a low-scoring affair could be worth exploring. Based on the stats and the bookmakers' view, Atletico Sucre is the most likely winner, but expecting a comfortable margin might be optimistic given their recent narrow win and multiple draws.