Garliava - Atmosfera Mazeikiai prediction 10 October 2026

Garliava vs Atmosfera Mazeikiai prediction for the 1 Lyga match on October 10, 2026. The game kicks off at 12:00 local time. Based on our analysis, Atmosfera Mazeikiai is the slight favorite with a 37% win probability, while Garliava has a 28% chance and the draw stands at 35%.

Team Form

Garliava's recent form is poor, with just one win in their last five matches (W, L, L, L, L). That sole victory came at home against Dainava Alytus (2-1) on October 2. The other four games ended in defeats: 2-3 vs FK Kauno Zalgiris 2, 2-3 vs BFA Vilnius, 0-1 at Ekranas Panevezio, and 0-1 vs FK Babrungas Plunge. They have struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding 8 goals in these five outings.

Atmosfera Mazeikiai's form is mixed but slightly better (D, L, W, L, D). They drew 1-1 with BFA Vilnius and Dainava Alytus, lost 2-3 at FK Babrungas Plunge and 1-3 at Neptunas Klaipeda, and beat FK Tauras Taurage 3-1 at home. The team has scored in four of those five matches, showing attacking potential.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings between these sides, Garliava has won twice, Atmosfera Mazeikiai once, and two matches ended in draws. The most recent clash was a 1-1 draw in May 2026. Before that, Atmosfera won 1-0 away in October 2024, and Garliava won 3-2 away in October 2022. The head-to-head record is fairly balanced, with no clear dominance from either team.

League Table Positions

Garliava sits 11th in the 1 Lyga table with 25 points from 25 matches (7 wins, 4 draws, 14 losses). They have scored 29 goals and conceded 31. Atmosfera Mazeikiai is 9th with 30 points from 24 games (8 wins, 6 draws, 10 losses), scoring 37 and conceding 33. The visitors are five points ahead and have a game in hand. Garliava's home form has been weak – they are not in the top eight home teams – while Atmosfera Mazeikiai ranks 8th in the away standings with 14 points from 11 away games (4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses).

Win Probability: Garliava or Atmosfera Mazeikiai?

We have calculated the win probabilities based on bookmaker odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions. The probabilities are: Garliava win – 28%, Draw – 35%, Atmosfera Mazeikiai win – 37%. The odds implied a close contest, but Garliava's poor form and low home standing reduce their chances, while Atmosfera's slightly better form and higher league position give them a small edge. The head-to-head record is balanced, so it does not significantly shift the probabilities. Therefore, Atmosfera Mazeikiai is the more likely winner, but a draw is also a strong possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds around 2.80 for a Garliava win, 2.28 for a draw, and 2.62 for an Atmosfera Mazeikiai victory. These odds reflect the tight nature of this fixture. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards an away win or a draw. We recommend betting on "Atmosfera Mazeikiai to win or draw" (Double Chance) as the safest option. However, if you prefer a straight win bet, the value might be on the away side given the probabilities.