BFC Daugavpils - Auda prediction 19 October 2026

Our BFC Daugavpils vs Auda prediction for October 19, 2026, in the Virsliga shows Auda as the slight favourites with a 38% win probability, but BFC Daugavpils have the home edge and a 30% chance of victory.

Team Form

BFC Daugavpils have been inconsistent in their last five matches, recording one win, two draws, and two losses. They beat Ogre United 2–1 away, drew 0–0 at Liepajas Metalurgs, lost 1–2 at home to Rigas Futbola Skola, drew 1–1 at Riga FC, and lost 0–1 at Grobinas SC. The home side have only one win in this sequence and have struggled for clean sheets.

Auda, by contrast, are in excellent form with three wins and two draws from their last five outings. They won 3–2 at Liepajas Metalurgs, drew 1–1 at home with Rigas Futbola Skola, beat Ogre United 1–0 at home, drew 2–2 at Riga FC, and defeated Grobinas SC 1–0. Auda have scored in all five matches and conceded just three goals in that period.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, the rivalry is very tight: BFC Daugavpils have 11 wins, Auda have 10 wins, and there have been 3 draws in all competitions. Looking at the last five meetings, BFC Daugavpils lead with three victories to Auda's two. The most recent encounter, on July 26 2026, ended 1–0 to Auda at their ground. The head-to-head numbers suggest neither side has a decisive upper hand.

League Table Positions

Auda sit 3rd in the Virsliga table with 64 points from 32 matches, while BFC Daugavpils are 5th with 42 points – a gap of 22 points. The visitors’ away record is particularly strong: 9 wins, 4 draws, and only 2 defeats in 15 road trips, scoring 23 goals and conceding 16. BFC Daugavpils at home have posted 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with 18 scored and 13 conceded. The standings clearly favour Auda, but the home side are no pushovers on their own turf.

Win Probability: BFC Daugavpils or Auda?

We have calculated the outcome probabilities based on the latest odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home/away performance.
BFC Daugavpils win: 30%
Draw: 32%
Auda win: 38%

The initial odds implied a 41.4% chance for Auda and 26.7% for BFC Daugavpils. Adjusting for BFC Daugavpils’ slight H2H advantage (3 wins in the last 5) and their home record, we have raised their probability to 30%. Auda’s superior league standing and strong away form keep them as the most likely winner, but the draw also carries a significant 32% probability. In short, Auda are the favourites, but this match looks tighter than the league table might suggest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are divided. One set of odds offers 3.25 for a BFC Daugavpils win, 2.18 for the draw, and 2.32 for an Auda victory. Another bookmaker has 3.20 for the home side, 3.50 for the draw, and as short as 1.90 for an Auda win. This variation reflects the balanced nature of the fixture.

Based on the stats, Auda have the edge in form and league position, but BFC Daugavpils have home advantage and a positive recent H2H record. Our BFC Daugavpils vs Auda prediction is a closely contest match where Auda are the narrow favourites, but a draw is a very realistic outcome. Expect a competitive Virsliga fixture with limited goal-scoring chances.