Austria Wien - TSV Hartberg prediction 27 October 2026

The Austria Wien vs TSV Hartberg prediction for this Cup match on October 27 at 17:00 looks set to favor the home side. Based on head-to-head dominance, league form trends, and the latest odds, Austria Wien enters this clash as the likely winner. Our calculated win probability gives Austria Wien a 48% chance of victory, with a draw at 26% and TSV Hartberg at 26%.

Team Form

Austria Wien's recent outings paint a worrying picture. Looking at their last five matches across all competitions, their form guide reads: L, L, L, W, D. In their most recent Bundesliga fixture on October 23, they fell 2-1 to SC Rheindorf Altach, and another away loss to SV Ried (3-2) followed on October 17. A 2-0 home defeat to Sturm Graz on October 10 adds to concerns, although a 6-1 friendly rout of Admira Wacker Mödling on October 2 and a 2-2 draw at Grazer AK on September 19 show some underlying resilience.

TSV Hartberg arrives with significantly better momentum. Their form string is W, L, W, W, D over their last five. They secured a hard-fought 1-0 home win over Wolfsberger AC on October 24. A 3-1 away loss to Rapid Wien on October 16 is the only blemish in this run, after which they bounced back with an exciting 4-3 home victory against Austria Lustenau on October 11. A 5-0 friendly demolition of KSV 1919 and a 3-3 draw with LASK Linz complete a stretch that highlights Hartberg's attacking intent.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical head-to-head record heavily favors Austria Wien. In 35 previous meetings, Austria Wien boasts 22 wins compared to 12 for TSV Hartberg, with only 1 match ending in a draw. Recent encounters underscore Austria's edge in this fixture. Austria Wien won the last two meetings: a 2-0 away victory on August 16, 2026, and a 1-0 home win on May 3, 2026. They also secured a 1-0 away win on March 22, 2026. TSV Hartberg’s last success came on November 1, 2025, with a 2-1 home result, and they also shocked Austria Wien 3-1 away on August 24, 2025, proving they cannot be taken lightly, even on the road.

League Table Positions

As this is an Austrian Cup tie, direct league table comparisons from the Bundesliga are not provided in the match data. Nevertheless, the form strings reflect recent domestic performances, with TSV Hartberg showing better recent point accumulation than Austria Wien heading into this knockout fixture.

Win Probability: Austria Wien or TSV Hartberg?

Calculating the outcome chances integrates the available odds with recent performance data. We used the average bookmaker odds (home 1.87, draw 2.54, away 3.86) as a base. By removing the standard bookmaker margin, the true implied probabilities adjust to roughly: Austria Wien win 49%, draw 20%, TSV Hartberg win 31%. However, heavily weighting the head-to-head dominance (22-12 home wins) and the significant gap in current form—where Austria Wien has three straight defeats in the Bundesliga while Hartberg has won three of their last five—leads to a significant adjustment. We therefore downgrade Austria Wien's chances slightly and boost Hartberg's prospects. The final calculated win probability stands at: Austria Wien 48%, Draw 26%, TSV Hartberg 26%. This reflects a classic case of historical favorite vs. in-form underdog, where Austria Wien's pedigree just gives them the edge.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers align with the historical data rather than the recent form. The available odds from multiple bookies show Austria Wien as a clear favorite, with the best home win price listed at 1.96 and drifting to a low of 1.80. The draw fluctuates significantly, from 2.25 to 3.78, indicating market uncertainty around a stalemate. TSV Hartberg's away win odds range from 3.70 to 4.03, marking them as the underdog. Based on the stats, a narrow win for Austria Wien appears the most likely match outcome, but backing the home side carries risk given their current poor run of league results.