| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 | 2.30 | 4.80 | |
| 1.60 | 2.32 | 4.65 | |
| 1.60 | 2.30 | 4.50 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14:7 | +7 | 18 | |
| 2 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13:6 | +7 | 18 | |
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18:8 | +10 | 16 | |
| 4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14:10 | +4 | 15 | |
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14:10 | +4 | 14 | |
| 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8:5 | +3 | 14 | |
| 7 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | +2 | 12 | |
| 8 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9:8 | +1 | 12 | |
| 9 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 0 | 11 | |
| 10 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11:10 | +1 | 11 | |
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9:12 | -3 | 10 | |
| 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 10 | |
| 13 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:15 | -7 | 8 | |
| 14 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:15 | -8 | 8 | |
| 15 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7:9 | -2 | 7 | |
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7:10 | -3 | 6 | |
| 17 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | -4 | 5 | |
| 18 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2:10 | -8 | 2 |
This Uniao Leiria vs Avs Futebol Sad prediction looks at the Segunda Liga match in Portugal on Oct 31 at 18:00. Based on the 1X2 odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, Uniao Leiria are the narrow favorite with a 43% win probability, followed by Avs Futebol Sad at 29% and the draw at 28%. Bookmakers see Uniao Leiria as the favorite, but Avs Futebol Sad's perfect head-to-head record makes this a riskier home call than the odds show.
Uniao Leiria's last five results are D, W, L, W, D. They drew 1-1 at Porto B on Oct 25, beat Braganca 2-1 in the Cup on Oct 17, lost 0-2 at home to Academica Coimbra on Oct 11, won 2-0 at O Elvas CAD in the Cup on Sep 19, and drew 2-2 at Amarante on Sep 13.
Avs Futebol Sad are in stronger form with W, W, W, W, D in their last five matches. They beat Tondela 2-1 at home on Oct 25, beat Moreirense 1-0 in the Cup on Oct 17, won 2-1 at Penafiel on Oct 9, won 2-0 at Sintrense in the Cup on Sep 20, and drew 0-0 at home with Farense on Sep 13.
The head-to-head record strongly favors Avs Futebol Sad. In the four listed meetings, Uniao Leiria have no wins, there are no draws, and Avs Futebol Sad have four wins. The results are Avs Futebol Sad 2-1 Uniao Leiria in 2024, Uniao Leiria 1-2 Avs Futebol Sad in 2023, and two 0-3 cup wins for Avs Futebol Sad in 2017.
In the overall Segunda Liga table, Avs Futebol Sad are 7th with 12 points from 8 matches (3W, 3D, 2L, 10:8 goals), while Uniao Leiria are 10th with 11 points from 8 matches (3W, 2D, 3L, 11:10 goals). The gap is only one point. Avs Futebol Sad also have 5 points from 4 away matches.
The win probabilities after adjusting the bookmaker odds for H2H, form, and home advantage are:
Uniao Leiria has a 43% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Avs Futebol Sad has a 29% chance. The raw 1X2 odds of 1.60-1.62 for Uniao Leiria imply a home probability of around 48-49% after removing the bookmaker margin, but Avs Futebol Sad's 4-0 head-to-head edge and four wins in five push the away probability up and lower the home percentage.
In the 1X2 market, one bookmaker lists Uniao Leiria at 1.62, the draw at 2.30, and Avs Futebol Sad at 4.55. Another lists 1.60, 2.30, and 4.50. These odds make Uniao Leiria the bookmakers' favorite, but the stats suggest a closer match than the prices indicate.
Based on the stats, Uniao Leiria are the most likely single outcome at 43%, but Avs Futebol Sad are a live underdog because of their perfect H2H record and strong away form. For betting tips, the draw and Avs Futebol Sad double chance are worth considering, while a narrow Uniao Leiria win remains the most probable result.