Feyenoord - AZ Alkmaar prediction 10 October 2026

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar prediction for the Eredivisie match on Oct 10 at 17:45. Based on the stats, Feyenoord has a 45% chance of winning, while AZ Alkmaar has a 25% chance, with a 30% probability of a draw. The game at De Kuip sees the league leaders host an unbeaten AZ side in what promises to be a tight contest.

Team Form

Feyenoord come into this match with a form record of W, W, L, W, D in their last five games. In the Eredivisie, they have been dominant, including a 5-0 home win over Utrecht and a 7-0 away thrashing of Zwolle. Their only recent defeat was a 5-1 loss at Barcelona in the Champions League. At home in the league, they drew 2-2 with ADO Den Haag, which shows some vulnerability.

AZ Alkmaar's last five results are W, L, D, W, W. They beat Telstar 1-0 at home, lost 1-0 at Sunderland in the Europa League, drew 1-1 with Willem II, and won away at Heerenveen (3-2) and at home against Go Ahead Eagles (5-2). Their away form in the Eredivisie is perfect with three wins from three, scoring nine goals and conceding only three.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Feyenoord have dominated at home against AZ Alkmaar, with 17 wins, 3 draws, and only 4 away wins for AZ. The last five meetings have seen Feyenoord win three times (including a 3-2 and 2-0 at home) and two draws (1-1 at home and 3-3 away). The matches tend to be high-scoring, with both teams finding the net in four of the last five encounters.

League Table Positions

Feyenoord sit top of the Eredivisie with 17 points from 7 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), scoring 25 goals and conceding 7. AZ Alkmaar are third with 16 points from 6 games (5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses), with 17 goals scored and 6 conceded. Both teams are unbeaten in the league. Feyenoord's home record is 1 win and 2 draws from 3 games, while AZ's away record is a perfect 3 wins from 3. This sets up an intriguing clash between the league's best attack and one of the tightest defences.

Win Probability: Feyenoord or AZ Alkmaar?

Based on the odds, form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Feyenoord has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and AZ Alkmaar has a 25% chance. The raw odds implied probabilities (after removing the bookmaker margin) were approximately 43.5% for a home win, 33.8% for a draw, and 22.7% for an away win. We have adjusted these slightly upward for Feyenoord due to their historical home dominance and overall league standing, but also increased AZ's chances because of their flawless away record this season. The draw probability remains significant given Feyenoord's two home draws already this campaign. Overall, Feyenoord are the more likely winners, but AZ Alkmaar cannot be underestimated.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have set the odds at around 1.85 for a Feyenoord victory, 2.38 for the draw, and 3.55 for an AZ Alkmaar win. These odds reflect Feyenoord's status as favorites. Our prediction, based on the stats, is that Feyenoord are the team most likely to win, but the value might lie in the draw given the resilience of both sides. A 2-1 or 1-1 scoreline seems plausible. Ultimately, Feyenoord's firepower at home should give them the edge, but AZ's perfect away record makes this a tough call.