Liechtenstein - Azerbaijan prediction 13 November 2026

The Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein prediction for this UEFA Nations League match on Oct 1, 2026, points to a dominant home victory. Azerbaijan enters the contest as the overwhelming favorite with an 85% win probability, while Liechtenstein faces an uphill battle with just a 5% chance of an upset. The match kicks off at 17:00 at Dalga Arena in Baku.

Team Form

Azerbaijan's recent results show a mixed but competitive run. In their last five outings, they recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss:

• Sep 27: Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan (D)
• Sep 23: Azerbaijan 1-0 Tajikistan (W)
• Jun 9: Azerbaijan 2-1 San Marino (W)
• Jun 5: Azerbaijan 0-2 Malta (L)
• Mar 30: Azerbaijan 1-1 Sierra Leone (D)

They have scored in four of those five matches and kept one clean sheet. Playing at home, they will look to build on the win against Tajikistan.

Liechtenstein, on the other hand, is in a deep crisis. They have lost all of their last five matches, conceding 12 goals and scoring only once:

• Sep 27: Malta 2-0 Liechtenstein (L)
• Sep 24: Liechtenstein 0-2 Lithuania (L)
• Jun 7: Liechtenstein 0-2 Cyprus (L)
• Jun 4: Andorra 2-0 Liechtenstein (L)
• Mar 29: Aruba 4-1 Liechtenstein (L)

Four of those defeats came without a goal, highlighting severe attacking problems.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous meetings between Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein in the available data. This will be the first-ever encounter between the two nations, so no historical head-to-head trends can influence the prediction.

League Table Positions

The league table data provided does not include Azerbaijan or Liechtenstein, so their exact positions in the UEFA Nations League standings cannot be determined. However, based on recent results and the overall strength of the squads, Azerbaijan is clearly in better shape than their opponents.

Win Probability: Azerbaijan or Liechtenstein?

After analyzing the odds, team form, and home advantage, the win probabilities for this match are:

• Azerbaijan win: 85%
• Draw: 10%
• Liechtenstein win: 5%

These percentages are derived from the inverse of the bookmaker odds (1.18 home, 8.14 draw, 21.00 away), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted to reflect Azerbaijan's superior recent form and Liechtenstein's five-match losing streak. The home field at Dalga Arena further strengthens Azerbaijan's position. In short, Azerbaijan is the clear favorite to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Azerbaijan as the heavy favorite. One bookmaker lists the odds at 1.18 for a home win, 8.14 for a draw, and 21.00 for an away win. Other bookmakers offer similar lines, with home odds as low as 1.14. Based on the stats and the betting market, the most likely outcome is a comfortable Azerbaijan victory. Our Azerbaijan vs Liechtenstein prediction is a home win, with a low probability of any other result.