Bahia BA - Mirassol SP prediction 11 October 2026

The Bahia BA vs Mirassol SP prediction points to a home victory at Itaipava Arena Fonte Nova on October 11, 2026, in Brazil's Serie A. Based on all available stats, Bahia BA has a 52% chance of winning, the draw sits at 28%, and Mirassol SP has a 20% chance. Bahia BA enters as the clear favorite, backed by superior league position and home advantage.

Team Form

Bahia BA's recent form shows a mixed bag with three wins and two losses in their last five outings (W, W, W, L, L). Their most recent matches ended in defeats away to Palmeiras SP (1-0) and Atletico Paranaense PR (2-1), but they secured wins against Remo PA, Red Bull Bragantino SP, and Internacional RS before that. This suggests some defensive vulnerabilities on the road but a strong capacity to score at home.

Mirassol SP's last five results read D, W, D, W, L. They drew 1-1 away at Red Bull Bragantino SP, beat Botafogo RJ 2-0 at home, and drew 2-2 with Vitoria BA. However, a 2-0 loss to Flamengo RJ highlights their struggles against top-tier opposition. Their form is inconsistent, with only two wins in five, and they are conceding regularly on their travels.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is perfectly balanced, with one win each and one draw from three Serie A meetings. The most recent clash on April 11, 2026, saw Bahia BA win 2-1 away at Mirassol SP. Earlier, Mirassol SP thrashed Bahia BA 5-1 at home in August 2025, while the fixture at this venue in April 2025 ended 1-1. The overall H2H stats show a tendency for goals, but no clear historical dominance from either side.

League Table Positions

Bahia BA sit 6th in the Serie A table with 46 points from 29 matches (12 wins, 10 draws, 7 losses), scoring 43 and conceding 36. They are firmly in the top half and pushing for continental qualification. Mirassol SP are not listed in the top 12 of the overall standings, indicating they are in the lower half of the table. Bahia BA's home form is not detailed in the available home standings, but their away record ranks 3rd best in the league, proving their overall competitive strength. The massive gap in league positions underlines Bahia BA's status as the much stronger side this season.

Win Probability: Bahia BA or Mirassol SP?

The calculated win probabilities for this match are: Bahia BA win – 52%, Draw – 28%, Mirassol SP win – 20%. These percentages are derived by first converting the best available odds (home 1.65, draw 2.28, away 4.00) into implied probabilities, normalizing them to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusting for Bahia BA's superior league standing (6th vs lower half), home advantage, and more consistent recent form. Despite the even head-to-head, the current season's data strongly favors a home win. Bahia BA's 52% likelihood reflects their status as the favorite, while Mirassol SP's poor form against top-half teams significantly reduces their chances of an upset.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are heavily skewed towards Bahia BA, with best odds of 1.65 for a home win, compared to 2.28 for the draw and 4.00 for an away win. The odds range from 1.65 to 2.05 for the home side, signaling strong market confidence. Based on the stats, the Bahia BA vs Mirassol SP prediction is a home win. Mirassol SP's defensive record on the road and their lowly league position make it difficult to see them getting a result at Itaipava Arena Fonte Nova, where Bahia BA will be motivated to bounce back from two away defeats.