Baltija Panevezys - Banga Gargzdai prediction 17 October 2026

Our Banga Gargzdai vs Baltija Panevezys prediction for this A Lyga clash on Sep 03, 2026, at 16:00 Lithuanian time, gives Banga Gargzdai a 55% win probability. The hosts’ strong form and home advantage tip the scales against a Baltija side that struggles away. Read on for betting tips, odds, and head-to-head analysis.

Team Form

Banga Gargzdai’s last five results show a resilient side: a 0-0 draw with FK Kauno Zalgiris, a 1-1 draw at FK Hegelmann Litauen, a 3-2 away win at Zalgiris Vilnius, a 0-3 home loss to Suduva Marijampole, and a 3-1 away win at Siauliai Futbolo Akademija. That run includes two wins, two draws, and only one defeat. Baltija Panevezys’ recent form is inconsistent: a 2-0 home win vs Zalgiris Vilnius, a 0-2 away loss to Suduva Marijampole, a 0-1 away loss to Siauliai Futbolo Akademija, a 2-0 away win at Transinvest, and a 1-1 home draw with Dziugas Telsiai. Their away form is a major concern, with three losses in the last four road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record heavily favours Baltija Panevezys: 16 wins to Banga’s 8, with 7 draws. In the last five meetings, Baltija is unbeaten with three wins and two draws. The most recent clash on May 24, 2026, saw Baltija win 1-0 at home. Banga’s last home win against Baltija came earlier in the history, but recent form suggests they might break the trend.

League Table Positions

In the A Lyga standings, Banga Gargzdai sit 4th with 38 points from 25 matches (10 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses). Baltija Panevezys are 7th with 26 points (7 wins, 5 draws, 13 losses). Banga’s home record is 4-4-3 (16 points), while Baltija’s away record is a dismal 3-0-10 (9 points). The gap in quality is evident, especially when considering Banga are the league’s best away team, but playing at home they are solid.

Win Probability: Banga Gargzdai or Baltija Panevezys?

Based on the odds, team form, and league table, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Banga Gargzdai win: 55%, Draw: 25%, Baltija Panevezys win: 20%. The bookmakers’ odds (home 1.96, draw 3.70, away 4.03) imply a home win probability of about 49.6% after removing the margin. However, Banga’s superior league position, home advantage, and Baltija’s poor away record (only 9 points from 13 away games) justify an upward adjustment to 55%. The head-to-head is against Banga, but current form and context override that historical trend. Therefore, Banga Gargzdai are the clear favourites to win this match.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of around 1.96 for a Banga Gargzdai victory, 3.70 for the draw, and 4.03 for Baltija Panevezys. These odds reflect the hosts’ favouritism. Our prediction, based on all the stats, is a home win for Banga Gargzdai. The win probability, combined with the odds, makes Banga a solid bet. For those looking at betting tips, the home win is the most likely outcome, though the draw cannot be ruled out given Baltija’s recent H2H resilience.