Banga Gargzdai - Siauliai Futbolo Akademija prediction 25 October 2026

Our Siauliai Futbolo Akademija vs Banga Gargzdai prediction for this A Lyga match on Aug 03, 2026, at 15:45 points to an away win. Based on recent form and head-to-head stats, Banga Gargzdai enters as the favorite with a 50% win probability, while Siauliai Futbolo Akademija has just a 20% chance of victory. The draw is rated at 30%.

Team Form

Siauliai Futbolo Akademija is in poor shape. Their last five matches in all competitions: a 0-2 loss to FK Hegelmann Litauen (Jul 24), a 0-4 loss to FK Kauno Zalgiris (Jul 18), a 0-3 loss to Zalgiris Vilnius (Jul 05), a 1-3 loss to Transinvest (Jun 29), and a 2-1 cup win over Dziugas Telsiai (Jun 24). That’s four defeats in five, with 1 goal scored and 12 conceded in those four league losses.

Banga Gargzdai, on the other hand, is flying. Their last five A Lyga outings: a 0-1 loss at Dziugas Telsiai (Jul 19), a 3-1 win at Transinvest (Jul 12), a 2-0 home win over FK Hegelmann Litauen (Jun 28), a 3-0 home win over Zalgiris Vilnius (Jun 20), and a 1-0 win at FK Kauno Zalgiris (Jun 17). That’s four wins in five, with 9 goals scored and only 2 conceded.

Head-to-Head Record

Overall, these teams have met 20 times: Siauliai won 6, Banga won 4, and 10 ended in draws. However, recent history strongly favors Banga. The last five encounters:

• May 30, 2026: Banga Gargzdai 1-1 Siauliai (A Lyga)
• Apr 04, 2026: Siauliai 0-0 Banga (A Lyga)
• Jan 23, 2026: Siauliai 1-4 Banga (Friendly)
• Oct 22, 2025: Siauliai 1-3 Banga (A Lyga)
• Aug 04, 2025: Banga 1-0 Siauliai (A Lyga)

Banga is unbeaten in these five, with three wins and two draws. Siauliai last beat Banga in a league match back in 2025.

League Table Positions

Siauliai Futbolo Akademija sits 9th in the A Lyga with 13 points from 21 matches (2 wins, 7 draws, 12 losses). They have scored 18 and conceded 43, a -25 goal difference. Banga Gargzdai is 6th with 30 points from 20 games (8 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses), scoring 22 and conceding 15 (+7). The 17-point gap and contrasting goal differences underline the visitors’ superiority this season.

Win Probability: Siauliai Futbolo Akademija or Banga Gargzdai?

After normalizing bookmaker odds and adjusting for team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Siauliai Futbolo Akademija 20%, draw 30%, Banga Gargzdai 50%. The odds implied a closer contest, but Banga’s four wins in five, their unbeaten H2H run, and Siauliai’s dreadful form justify a stronger favorite status. Home advantage is heavily outweighed by the gulf in quality and momentum.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ 1X2 odds range from 3.50 to 4.12 for a home win, 2.10 to 3.56 for the draw, and 1.91 to 2.42 for an away win. Banga Gargzdai is the clear favorite across all books. Based on the stats, our Siauliai Futbolo Akademija vs Banga Gargzdai prediction is an away victory, but the 30% draw probability suggests a tight match is possible.