Porthmadog - Bangor 1876 FC prediction 3 October 2026

Bangor 1876 FC vs Porthmadog prediction for their Cymru North match on October 3, 2026. This fixture at Porthmadog’s ground sees the visitors as slight favorites, with Bangor 1876 FC holding a 41% win probability compared to 33% for Porthmadog and a 26% chance of a draw.

Team Form

Porthmadog’s last five results: W, W, L, D, L. They secured a 1-0 away win at Newtown on Sep 26, and a 3-0 home win against Ruthin Town on Sep 12, but lost 1-2 at home to Bala Town on Sep 5 and 1-3 to Caersws on Aug 28, with a 2-2 draw at Holyhead Hotspur on Aug 31.

Bangor 1876 FC’s last five: L, D, W, D, W. They suffered a heavy 2-6 home loss to Buckley Town on Sep 25, drew 3-3 at home with Mold Alexandra in a cup tie on Sep 19, beat Penrhyncoch 5-1 away on Sep 12, drew 2-2 at home with Rhyl FC on Sep 5, and edged Brickfield Rangers 2-1 at home on Aug 28.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met once before, in a Cymru North fixture on January 1, 2024, where Bangor 1876 FC won 4-1 at home. That gives Bangor 1876 FC a 1-0 advantage in the head-to-head with a goal margin of +3.

Bangor 1876 FC vs Porthmadog Prediction: Win Probability

Based on the bookmaker odds—where the lowest offered home win odds are 2.20, the draw 2.40, and the away win 2.50—the implied probabilities adjusted for margin give Porthmadog around 38%, draw 28%, and Bangor 1876 FC 34%. However, recent form and the dominant head-to-head result tilt the balance: Porthmadog has lost two of its last three home games, while Bangor 1876 FC has taken 8 points from its last 5 matches (W2 D2 L1). Therefore, we calculate Porthmadog’s win chance at 33%, the draw at 26%, and Bangor 1876 FC at 41%. Bangor 1876 FC is the more likely winner, but the match remains open.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced this match closely. Home win odds range from 2.20 to 2.70, the draw from 2.40 to 3.80, and an away win for Bangor 1876 FC from 2.50 to 2.88. These odds imply a tight contest, but the market has not fully factored in Bangor 1876 FC’s superior recent away performances and the 4-1 H2H result. Our prediction: based on the stats, Bangor 1876 FC to win. A draw is a plausible outcome, but the away side’s attacking form (scoring 5 against Penrhyncoch) makes them the most likely winner.