Bare - Progresso RR prediction 14 March 2026

Our Bare vs Progresso RR prediction for this Campeonato Roraimense fixture sees Bare as the favorite with a 60% win probability. The match kicks off on March 14, 2026, at 21:30 local time, and all key stats point towards a home victory. Below we break down team form, head-to-head record, league standings, and the latest odds to give you a complete match analysis.

Team Form

Bare enter the match on a mixed run. They fell 1-2 at home to Sao Raimundo RR on March 7 but responded strongly with a 4-1 away victory at Rio Negro RR on March 11. Those two results show resilience, and with 17 goals scored and only 7 conceded in 8 matches this season (goal difference +10), they have one of the tighter defenses in the league.

Progresso RR have also had an up-and-down spell. A crushing 0-7 home loss to River Roraima on March 6 was followed by a 4-1 away win at Atletico Roraima RR on March 11. However, their overall defensive record is a major concern: 25 goals conceded in 8 games leaves them with a -17 goal difference, the second-worst in the division.

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous meeting between these sides came on March 26, 2025, when Bare demolished Progresso RR 7-0 away. That dominant display gives Bare a clear psychological edge and highlights the historical gulf in quality.

League Table Positions

Bare sit 5th in the Campeonato Roraimense with 15 points from 8 matches (5 wins, 0 draws, 3 defeats). At home they have been particularly strong, winning 3 of 4 with 10 goals scored and just 3 conceded.

Progresso RR (listed as SCD Progresso Calcio in the league table) are 7th with only 6 points (2 wins, 6 defeats). Their away record is poor: 1 win and 3 losses, with a goal difference of 4–12. The gap in consistency and defensive solidity is stark.

Win Probability: Bare or Progresso RR?

Combining the pre-match data — form, head-to-head record, league standings, and home/away factors — we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows:

• Bare win: 60%
• Draw: 25%
• Progresso RR win: 15%

Bare’s home fortress, dominant H2H history, and much stronger league position make them the clear favourites. Progresso RR’s away frailty and leaky defence make an upset extremely unlikely. A draw remains a realistic possibility given both sides’ recent inconsistencies, but the numbers strongly favour a home win.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available for this match. Based on the stats, Bare would be short-priced favourites. A home win to nil could be an interesting market to explore, given Bare’s excellent home goals-against record (just 3 in 4 games) and Progresso’s travel struggles. Our prediction: a home victory for Bare. Always gamble responsibly.