Caernarfon Town - Barry Town prediction 3 October 2026

The Caernarfon Town vs Barry Town prediction for October 3, 2026, points towards a home victory in this Welsh Premier League clash. Kick-off is at 14:30, and based on the latest stats and form, Caernarfon Town enters the match as the favorite with a calculated win probability of 48%. Barry Town has a 28% chance of winning, while the draw sits at 24%.

Team Form

Caernarfon Town's recent form has been strong, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches (D, W, D, W, W). Their most recent outing was a 2-2 away draw against Cardiff Metropolitan on September 26. A standout performance was a dominant 9-1 home victory over Cambrian United on September 18, showcasing their attacking power.

Barry Town's form is more inconsistent, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five (L, L, D, W, L). They suffered a heavy 1-4 home defeat to Connahs Quay on September 26, followed by a 2-5 loss away to Colwyn Bay. Their only win in this period was a 4-1 home success against Llandudno on September 11.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides is very tight. In 31 previous meetings, Caernarfon Town has 14 wins, Barry Town has 13, and there have been 4 draws. The last five encounters show a slight edge for the home team on the day, with Caernarfon winning two of the last three at their ground. The most recent match, on March 21, 2026, saw Barry Town win 2-1 at home.

League Table Positions

Caernarfon Town sits 4th in the Premier League table with 23 points from 11 matches (7 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). They have scored an impressive 35 goals and conceded 13. Barry Town is just behind in 6th place with 22 points from 11 games (7 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses), with 26 goals scored and 20 conceded. The key difference is in away form: Caernarfon has the best away record in the league (4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), while Barry Town's away form is 5th best (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses).

Win Probability: Caernarfon Town or Barry Town?

Based on the available odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league standings, we have calculated the outcome probabilities. The bookmaker odds of 1.88 for a home win, 3.60 for a draw, and 3.45 for an away win were used as a base and adjusted for recent performance. Caernarfon Town has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and Barry Town has a 28% chance. Caernarfon's unbeaten away form and superior goal difference give them a clear edge, making them the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds from bookmakers see Caernarfon Town as the favorite at 1.88. The draw is priced at 3.60, and an away win for Barry Town is at 3.45. Based on the stats, Caernarfon Town's strong form and home advantage make them the predicted winner. However, the tight head-to-head record suggests a competitive match is likely.