Basel II - Bavois prediction 17 October 2026

Basel II vs Bavois prediction: The Promotion League clash on Mar 28, 2026, at 14:00 sees Basel II as the favorite with a 45% win probability, according to our analysis. Bavois has a 30% chance, while the draw is rated at 25%. This Swiss third-tier encounter pits two closely matched sides against each other, with home advantage likely to play a key role.

Team Form

Basel II's last five matches show a pattern of inconsistency: L-W-L-W-D. On May 30, they lost 0-1 away to SC Bruhl St Gallen. Before that, they beat FC Vevey Sports 3-0 at home on May 23, lost 0-1 at Breitenrain on May 16, defeated Kriens 3-1 at home on May 9, and drew 1-1 at SC Cham on May 2. In that span, they scored 7 goals and conceded only 4, keeping two clean sheets. Notably, both wins came at home, where they have been strong all season.

Bavois arrives with a W-L-W-L-W form across their last five outings. Their most recent result was a 3-2 home friendly win over Portalban / Gletterens on Jul 11. In league action, they lost 1-2 at Kriens on May 30, beat SC Cham 3-2 at home on May 23, fell 1-4 at Kreuzlingen on May 17, and beat Lausanne II 2-1 at home on May 9. They scored 10 goals but conceded 11, highlighting defensive frailties, especially on the road where they lost both away matches in this sequence.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these teams is evenly split: 4 home wins, 2 draws, and 4 away wins in 10 meetings. However, recent history heavily favors Bavois. In the last four encounters before this fixture, Bavois won three and drew one. The most notable result was a 4-1 away victory on Sep 13, 2025. The other results: Basel II 0-2 Bavois (Sep 30, 2023), Bavois 4-4 Basel II (Apr 29, 2023), and Bavois 2-0 Basel II (Nov 27, 2021). Bavois has scored 12 goals to Basel II's 5 in those four matches.

League Table Positions

Basel II finished the season 4th in the Promotion League with 59 points from 33 matches (17 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses). They scored 65 goals and conceded 47, giving them a +18 goal difference. At home, they were particularly strong: 10 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, with 37 goals scored and 26 conceded.

Bavois placed 5th with 55 points (17 wins, 4 draws, 12 losses), netting 63 times and allowing 51 goals for a +12 difference. Their away record was mixed: 7 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses, with 30 goals for and 30 against. The 4-point gap between the sides is narrow, but Basel II's home form gives them a clear edge in this matchup.

Win Probability: Basel II or Bavois?

Based on the available data, we assign the following win probabilities: Basel II 45%, Draw 25%, Bavois 30%. Basel II's home advantage and superior league position make them the favorite. They have won 59% of their home games this season, while Bavois has won only 44% of away matches. However, Bavois' dominant head-to-head record in recent years and their slightly better recent form (three wins in five) cannot be ignored. The draw is a realistic possibility, given that both teams have drawn a combined 12 league matches this season. Overall, Basel II is more likely to win, but the margin is slim.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this match are not currently available. Based on the statistical analysis, Basel II is the predicted winner. Their strong home performances and Bavois' defensive issues on the road point to a home victory. However, the head-to-head record suggests caution. A low-scoring affair or a draw could be on the cards. Check back closer to kickoff for the latest betting lines and team news.