Auckland United FC - Bay Olympic prediction 22 August 2026

Auckland United FC vs Bay Olympic prediction for the Northern League match on Aug 22, 2026, at 06:00 UTC. Based on the stats, Auckland United FC is the clear favorite with a 68% win probability, while Bay Olympic faces an uphill battle.

Team Form

Auckland United FC's last five results: L, W, W, L, D. They suffered a 4-1 away loss to Fencibles United on Aug 19, but previously beat Tauranga City United 3-0 at home and thrashed Manukau United 6-0 away. A 2-1 Chatham Cup defeat at Nelson Suburbs and a 0-0 home draw with Western Springs AFC round out a mixed run.

Bay Olympic's recent form reads L, W, L, D, D. A heavy 5-1 home loss to Eastern Suburbs AFC on Aug 15 was followed by a 4-3 home win over Auckland FC Reserves. They then lost 5-1 at Auckland City, drew 2-2 at East Coast Bays, and drew 1-1 at Melville United. One win in five highlights their inconsistency.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time head-to-head heavily favors Auckland United FC: 7 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses for Bay Olympic. The last five meetings all went Auckland United's way:

• May 16, 2026: Bay Olympic 0-3 Auckland United FC
• May 29, 2025: Bay Olympic 0-2 Auckland United FC
• Mar 28, 2025: Auckland United FC 2-1 Bay Olympic
• Jul 22, 2023: Auckland United FC 4-1 Bay Olympic
• Apr 22, 2023: Bay Olympic 1-2 Auckland United FC

Auckland United FC has scored 13 goals and conceded only 3 across these five matches, underlining their dominance.

Win Probability: Auckland United FC or Bay Olympic?

Auckland United FC has a 68% chance of winning, the draw is at 20%, and Bay Olympic has a 12% chance. These probabilities are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home win 1.27, draw 3.66, away win 6.12), then adjusted upward for Auckland United's perfect head-to-head record (7W-1D-0L), home advantage, and Bay Olympic's poor recent form. The data points to a comfortable home victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Auckland United FC as the strong favorite: the best home win odds are as low as 1.25, with draws around 2.87–3.10 and away wins up to 6.25. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is an Auckland United FC win, possibly with a clean sheet given the H2H trend of three shutouts in the last five meetings. A correct score prediction of 2-0 or 3-0 aligns with the data.