Boldmere Saint Michaels - Bedworth United prediction 6 October 2026

The Boldmere Saint Michaels vs Bedworth United prediction for this Northern Division One clash on Oct 6, 2026, at 19:45 points to a home win. Based on odds, recent form, and head-to-head record, Boldmere Saint Michaels enters the match as the favorite with a 45% win probability, while Bedworth United has just a 25% chance of victory and the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

Boldmere Saint Michaels comes into this match in excellent shape, having won four of their last five outings (W, L, W, W, W). Their most recent result was a convincing 3-1 away win at Shepshed Dynamo on Sep 29. The only blip was a 3-1 defeat at Barton Town in the FA Cup, but they responded with three straight home wins against Coventry United (3-1), Bourne Town (2-1), and Barwell (2-1).

Bedworth United, on the other hand, is struggling. Their last five results read W, L, D, L, L. They managed a 2-1 home win over Grantham Town on Sep 29 but have otherwise failed to impress, losing to Redditch United (0-1), Boston Town (0-2), and Corby Town (1-2), with a goalless draw at Rushden & Diamonds in between. The visitors have scored just three goals in those five matches, highlighting their attacking issues.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met only once in recent history. On Sep 23, 2025, Bedworth United hosted Boldmere Saint Michaels and lost 2-3. That away victory gives Boldmere a psychological edge and a 100% winning record in this fixture.

League Table Positions

Neither Boldmere Saint Michaels nor Bedworth United feature in the top 12 of the Northern Division One standings. The available table data does not include their exact positions, but the form guide suggests Boldmere is likely higher up the ladder, while Bedworth’s poor run indicates they are nearer the bottom.

Win Probability: Boldmere Saint Michaels or Bedworth United?

After normalizing the bookmaker odds to remove the margin, the implied probabilities were 34.2% for a home win, 38.0% for a draw, and 27.8% for an away win. However, form and head-to-head data heavily favor Boldmere. Adjusting for these factors, we calculate the true win probabilities as:

• Boldmere Saint Michaels win: 45%
• Draw: 30%
• Bedworth United win: 25%

Boldmere’s strong recent performances and home advantage make them the most likely winner, despite the odds initially pointing to a draw as the single most probable outcome.

Boldmere Saint Michaels vs Bedworth United Prediction

Bookmakers have priced this match closely. The best available odds are around 2.50 for a Boldmere win, 2.30 for the draw, and 3.30 for a Bedworth victory. These numbers reflect a competitive contest, but the stats tell a different story. Boldmere’s four wins in five games, combined with Bedworth’s three losses in the same period and the head-to-head result, suggest the home side should have the edge. Our Boldmere Saint Michaels vs Bedworth United prediction is a home win, with Boldmere likely to secure all three points based on current form and historical advantage.