Belarus - Finland prediction 6 October 2026

Belarus vs Finland prediction for the UEFA Nations League match on October 6, 2026. Based on our analysis, Belarus has a 35% chance of winning, while Finland has a 30% chance, with a draw at 35%. The match kicks off at 19:45 at the Illovszky Rudolf Stadion in Budapest.

Team Form

Belarus come into this fixture with a mixed run of results. Their last five matches show two wins, two draws, and one defeat. Most recently, they thrashed San Marino 4-0 at home on October 3. Before that, they held Finland to a 0-0 away draw on September 29. A 2-0 loss away to Albania on September 26 was followed by a 2-2 home draw with Burkina Faso and a 4-1 home win over Syria. Belarus have scored 10 goals and conceded 5 in this period.

Finland's recent form is similar: two wins, one draw, and two losses. They beat Albania 2-1 at home on October 3, drew 0-0 with Belarus at home on September 29, and crushed San Marino 7-0 away on September 26. However, they lost 2-1 away to Hungary and 4-0 away to Germany in June friendlies. Finland have also scored 10 goals in their last five, conceding 7.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favours Belarus. In five previous meetings, Belarus have won four and drawn one, with Finland yet to record a victory. The most recent clash was a 0-0 stalemate in the UEFA Nations League on September 29, 2026. The other four encounters all took place on June 9, 2018, with Belarus winning each 2-0 in friendly internationals. This historical dominance gives Belarus a psychological edge, even though the last match ended level.

Win Probability: Belarus or Finland?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Belarus win 35%, draw 35%, Finland win 30%. These figures are derived from bookmaker odds (implied probabilities averaged and normalized across six bookmakers), then adjusted for the lopsided head-to-head record and recent form. The raw odds implied a draw around 40%, a Finland win at 37%, and a Belarus win at just 23%. However, Belarus have never lost to Finland, and their recent performances have been slightly more consistent. Therefore, we boosted Belarus's chances and lowered Finland's, while keeping the draw as a very realistic outcome. Overall, Belarus are the marginal favourites, but a stalemate is equally likely.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Finland as the favourite despite the head-to-head history. The best available odds in the pre-match market show a home win for Belarus priced between 3.60 and 4.10, a draw around 2.00, and an away win for Finland between 2.30 and 2.62. These odds reflect Finland's higher FIFA ranking and stronger squad on paper, but the value may lie with Belarus or the draw given the H2H record. Based on the stats, our prediction is a tight contest likely to end in a draw or a narrow Belarus victory.