Belenense PA - Gaviao Kyikateje FC PA prediction 28 September 2026

The Belenense PA vs Gaviao Kyikateje FC PA prediction for the Campeonato Paraense Serie A3 match on September 28, 2026, points towards a home advantage for Belenense PA. Based on the odds and recent performances, Belenense PA have a 42% win probability, while the draw stands at 37% and an away win for Gaviao Kyikateje FC PA at 21%.

Team Form

Belenense PA have been in solid shape lately. Their last five matches show three wins, one draw and one loss (D, W, W, L, W). At home, they recently defeated Sport Belem PA 3-2 and Santos PA 2-1, and crushed Venus PA 3-1. They score plenty – 14 goals in 4 overall league games – but also concede (9). A 2-2 draw away to Vila Rica PA in their latest fixture shows occasional defensive lapses.

Gaviao Kyikateje FC PA have very little recent match data. Their only recorded recent outing was a 1-0 away loss to Sport Belem PA on November 8, 2025. That makes form analysis difficult, but they return to action after a long break.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous head-to-head record between Belenense PA and Gaviao Kyikateje FC PA. This will be their first official meeting, adding an element of unpredictability.

League Table Positions

In the overall Campeonato Paraense Serie A3 table, Gaviao Kyikateje FC PA (listed as Gavião) sit 1st with 10 points from 4 games (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses). Belenense PA are 2nd with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). At home, Belenense PA are top with a perfect record: 2 wins, 11 goals scored, only 2 conceded. On the road, Gaviao Kyikateje FC PA also have a perfect away record: 2 wins with 2 goals scored and 0 conceded. This sets up a clash between a dominant home side and a resilient away team.

Win Probability: Belenense PA or Gaviao Kyikateje FC PA?

The win probability calculation, derived from the inverse of the average odds across four bookmakers and adjusted to 100%, gives:

• Belenense PA win: 42%
• Draw: 37%
• Gaviao Kyikateje FC PA win: 21%

These percentages are based on the average odds (home 2.18, draw 2.43, away 4.23) after removing the bookmaker margin. The home team’s strong attacking form and perfect home record support their favorite tag, but Gaviao’s unblemished away defensive record and league leadership keep the draw as a very realistic outcome. The lack of H2H data adds further uncertainty. In summary, Belenense PA are the more likely winner, but a draw is almost equally probable.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds for the 1X2 market show variation but consistently price Belenense PA as the favorite. Average odds are around 2.18 for a home win, with the draw at 2.43 and an away win at 4.23. The highest available home price is 2.30, the lowest is 2.00. Our match prediction, weighing the stats and probabilities, is a home win or draw (double chance 1X). Belenense PA should have enough firepower to avoid defeat, but the visitors’ defensive record on the road suggests they could hold on for a point.