Belgium U23 Women - Italy U23 Women prediction 8 October 2026

The Belgium U23 Women vs Italy U23 Women prediction for the Friendly International Women match on Oct 8, 2026, at 15:00, points to a tight contest. Based on odds and recent form, Italy U23 Women are slight favorites with a 35% win probability, while Belgium U23 Women have a 30% chance and the draw is at 35%.

Team Form

Belgium U23 Women come into this match with a mixed run of results. Their last five outings show three defeats, one win, and one draw: a 0-1 loss to Portugal U23 Women, a 1-2 loss to Germany U23 Women, a 2-4 loss to Germany U23 Women, a 2-0 win over Scotland U23 Women, and a 0-0 draw with Netherlands U23 Women. That form line reads L, L, L, W, D, highlighting a struggle for consistency.

Italy U23 Women have a similar recent record. Their last five matches produced one win, one draw, and three losses: a 0-1 defeat to Germany U23 Women, a 3-1 victory over Portugal U23 Women, a 1-2 loss to Sweden U23 Women, a 1-3 loss to Scotland U23 Women, and a 2-2 draw with Netherlands U23 Women. The sequence L, W, L, L, D mirrors Belgium’s patchy form, with both sides managing just one victory in five.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met twice before, both times in Italy. Italy U23 Women hold the edge with one win and one draw. On Nov 30, 2023, Italy won 2-1; the most recent clash on Nov 28, 2024, ended 1-1. Belgium U23 Women are yet to record a victory in this fixture, and all encounters have been low-scoring affairs.

Win Probability: Belgium U23 Women or Italy U23 Women?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Belgium U23 Women 30%, draw 35%, Italy U23 Women 35%. These figures are derived from bookmaker odds (implied probabilities of 27% Belgium, 34% draw, 39% Italy after removing the margin) and then adjusted for home advantage and the similar recent form of both teams. The adjustment gives Belgium a slight boost at home and increases the likelihood of a stalemate, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the contest. Italy remain the marginal favorites, but a draw is a very realistic outcome.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Italy U23 Women as the favorites. The best available odds at the time of writing are 4.00 for a Belgium win, 2.60 for the draw, and 2.20 for an Italy win. These odds align with the head-to-head record and the visitors’ slightly superior standing in past meetings. Our Belgium U23 Women vs Italy U23 Women prediction is a cautious one: based on the stats, the most likely results are a draw or a narrow Italy victory. A 1-1 scoreline is a strong possibility, and betting tips would lean towards the double chance of Italy or draw.