Benfica B - Chaves prediction 31 October 2026

The Benfica B vs Chaves prediction for this Segunda Liga match on Oct 31, 2026, points to a tight contest with Benfica B holding a slight edge. Based on our analysis, Benfica B has a 40% chance of winning, the draw sits at 35%, and Chaves has a 25% probability of taking all three points.

Team Form

Benfica B's last five matches show a mixed run: D, W, W, L, L. They drew 0-0 away at CB Feirense, beat Felgueiras 1-0 at home, and won 3-0 at Academica Coimbra, but then lost 0-2 at home to SCU Torreense and 0-1 away to Amarante. The team has kept two clean sheets in that span but also failed to score in three of the five games.

Chaves come into this fixture with a similar recent record: W, W, D, L, L. They secured a 2-1 home win over Vizela in the league and a 2-1 cup victory against Os Marialvas, followed by a 1-1 draw at Lusitania Lourosa. However, they suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat at Farense and lost a friendly 0-1 to Vitoria Guimaraes. Both sides have struggled for consistency, making this a hard-to-call encounter.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall H2H record between these two sides stands at 4 wins for Benfica B, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Chaves. Looking at the last five meetings, Benfica B are unbeaten with three wins and two draws:

• Jan 17, 2026: Benfica B 1-0 Chaves
• Aug 10, 2025: Chaves 1-1 Benfica B
• Feb 28, 2025: Chaves 1-2 Benfica B
• Feb 25, 2022: Chaves 1-1 Benfica B
• Oct 3, 2021: Benfica B 3-1 Chaves

Benfica B have clearly had the upper hand in recent clashes, which adds weight to their chances here.

League Table Positions

Benfica B currently sit 6th in the Segunda Liga with 14 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, goals 8:5). At home, they are 5th with 7 points from 4 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, goals 3:3). Chaves are not in the top 12 of the overall standings, indicating a lower league position. Their home record places them 8th with 7 points from 4 games (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, goals 6:7), but their away form is not among the top 8. Benfica B’s away record (5th, 7 points, 5:2 goals) suggests they are a solid side on the road, while Chaves’ absence from the away top 8 hints at travel struggles.

Win Probability: Benfica B or Chaves?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Benfica B win – 40%, draw – 35%, Chaves win – 25%. These percentages are derived from the bookmaker odds (home 2.32, draw 2.20, away 3.05), normalized to remove the margin, and then adjusted for the home advantage, Benfica B’s superior league position, and their unbeaten H2H run in the last five meetings. The numbers show Benfica B as the most likely winner, but the draw remains a very realistic result given both teams’ inconsistent form.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available odds from bookmakers show a tight market: one bookie offers 2.32 for a Benfica B win, 2.20 for the draw, and 3.05 for a Chaves victory. Another lists 2.30, 2.25, and 3.00 respectively. The low draw odds reflect how evenly matched the teams are perceived to be. Based on the stats, Benfica B appears the more probable winner, but a draw cannot be ruled out. Our final Benfica B vs Chaves prediction is a home win or a draw, with Benfica B having the edge in chances.