Benin - Mauritania prediction 29 September 2026

Our Benin vs Mauritania prediction for the African Cup of Nations group stage match is set for September 29, 2026, at 20:00. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Benin holds a 42% chance of winning, while the draw is at 32% and Mauritania at 26%.

Team Form

Benin's recent results are mixed: D, L, D, W, W. They come into this fixture after a 1-1 away draw against Burkina Faso on Sep 25, preceded by a heavy 5-1 loss to Togo, a 1-1 home draw with Niger, and away wins over Guinea (1-0) and Liberia (1-0). At home, Benin have been steady with a win over Liberia and a draw against Niger, showing they are tough to beat on their own patch.

Mauritania's last five matches: W, W, D, L, L. Their most recent outing was a 3-1 home victory over Central African Republic on Sep 24. Prior to that, they won 1-0 away at Niger, drew 1-1 in Angola, lost 2-1 to Argentina, and suffered a 2-0 home defeat to Kuwait. The away win in Niger and the draw in Angola highlight their ability to get results on the road, but losses to Argentina and Kuwait raise questions about consistency.

Head-to-Head Record

In the two previous encounters between these sides, each team has won once. Both matches took place on June 18, 2019, in international friendlies. Benin beat Mauritania 3-1 at home, while Mauritania recorded a 3-1 home win over Benin. The head-to-head gives little to separate the teams, with home advantage proving decisive in both games.

Win Probability: Benin or Mauritania?

Our calculated win probabilities for this African Cup of Nations clash are: Benin win – 42%, draw – 32%, Mauritania win – 26%. The base is derived from the average bookmaker odds (home 2.50, draw 2.24, away 3.49), which initially implied the draw as the most likely outcome. After adjusting for Benin's home advantage and stronger H2H performance at their own stadium, as well as Mauritania's slightly shakier recent form, we leaned towards a Benin victory. The probabilities still reflect a tight contest, but Benin get the nod as marginal favorites.

Benin vs Mauritania Prediction

Bookmakers present a wide range of odds. The best price for a Benin win can be found at 2.38, while the draw is offered as low as 1.82. Mauritania’s away win is priced as high as 3.80. These quotes underline the unpredictable nature of the game, but the market slants Benin’s direction. Considering the stats and the 42% win probability, a home win is the most logical outcome, though a draw cannot be ruled out. Based on the data, our expert Benin vs Mauritania prediction angles towards a narrow Benin victory, potentially under 2.5 total goals given the defensive records in recent competitive fixtures.