Preston Lions - Bentleigh Greens prediction 24 July 2026

The Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens prediction for this NPL Victoria clash on Jul 24, 2026, at 10:30 UTC points strongly towards a home victory. Based on our win probability model, Preston Lions have a 65% chance of winning, while Bentleigh Greens sit at just 10%, with the draw at 25%.

Team Form

Preston Lions come into this match in excellent shape. Their last five results show four wins and one draw: a 0-0 away draw at South Melbourne, a 2-1 home win over Hume City, a 1-0 away cup win at North Sunshine Eagles, a 3-2 away victory at Avondale FC, and a 2-0 away win at Caroline Springs George Cross. That run includes three consecutive away wins, highlighting their consistency.

Bentleigh Greens, on the other hand, have struggled badly. Their last five matches produced just one win and four defeats. After a 2-1 home win against Dandenong City, they lost 2-1 at Dandenong Thunder, 3-0 at Green Gully Cavaliers, 1-0 at home to Altona Magic, and 5-1 at home to South Melbourne. With only one victory in five and a leaky defence, their form is a major concern.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these sides is limited to two recent meetings. The most recent, on Apr 17, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw when Bentleigh Greens hosted Preston Lions. The only other clash, back on Mar 15, 2024, saw Bentleigh Greens win 3-2 at home in the Victoria Premier League 1. So historically, Bentleigh Greens have had the edge, but the sample is small and both matches were at their ground. This will be the first meeting with Preston Lions as the home side in available data.

League Table Positions

The NPL Victoria standings underline the gulf between the two teams. Preston Lions sit 3rd with 39 points from 20 matches (12 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses), scoring 30 goals and conceding only 16. Bentleigh Greens are 12th with 19 points from 21 games (5 wins, 4 draws, 12 losses), with a goal difference of -25 (20 scored, 45 conceded). Preston Lions have been particularly strong away from home (1st in the away table with 26 points from 12 games), but their home record is more modest: 8th with 13 points from 8 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). Bentleigh Greens’ away form is not listed among the top eight, indicating they have struggled on the road.

Win Probability: Preston Lions or Bentleigh Greens?

We calculate the win probabilities based on bookmaker odds, recent form, head-to-head data, and league positions. The average odds across four bookmakers imply a 58.3% chance for a Preston Lions win, 30.4% for the draw, and 11.3% for a Bentleigh Greens victory after removing the margin. Adjusting for the huge form gap and the league table disparity, we raise Preston Lions’ chances to 65%, lower the draw to 25%, and give Bentleigh Greens just a 10% probability. The home side’s slightly underwhelming home record prevents an even higher percentage, but the visitors’ poor form and defensive frailties make an away win highly unlikely.

Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens Prediction

Bookmakers see Preston Lions as clear favourites. The best available odds for a home win are around 1.29, with the draw at 2.50–2.60 and an away win as high as 7.10. These odds reflect the expectation that Preston Lions will dominate. Our Preston Lions vs Bentleigh Greens prediction is a home win, with the 1.36 odds offering value given the 65% implied probability. The match outcome is likely to be controlled by the hosts, and betting tips would point to a Preston Lions victory. However, the draw cannot be completely ruled out given their occasional home stumbles.