Marek Dupnica - Beroe Stara Zagora prediction 10 October 2026

Marek Dupnica vs Beroe Stara Zagora prediction for October 10, 2026, in the Bulgarian B PFG. The bookmakers see a draw as the most likely outcome, with a 43% probability built into the odds. Marek Dupnica holds a 32% chance of winning at home, while Beroe Stara Zagora’s away win probability sits at 25%.

Team Form

Marek Dupnica’s last five matches show inconsistent results: a 4-0 cup win at Troyan, a 0-0 league draw at Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa, a 1-3 home loss to Rilski Sportist Samokov, a 3-0 home win over Pirin Blagoevgrad, and a 0-3 loss at Yantra Gabrovo. That gives them two wins, one draw, and two defeats. At home in the league, their only recent result is the 3-0 victory alongside the 1-3 defeat.

Beroe Stara Zagora arrive in better shape with three wins, one draw, and one loss from their last five. They won 2-1 in the cup at Minyor Pernik, beat Yantra Gabrovo 1-0 at home, lost 3-4 away at Nesebar in a thriller, defeated Sportist Svoge 1-0 at home, and drew 2-2 at Dobrudzha 1919. The away form is mixed with one win, one draw, and one loss in that span, but the overall momentum clearly favours the visitors.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous head-to-head history between Marek Dupnica and Beroe Stara Zagora. The data shows zero wins for each side and zero draws, making this the first competitive meeting on record.

League Table Positions

Beroe Stara Zagora sit 5th in the B PFG overall standings with 18 points from 11 matches (5 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses; goals 16:12). Marek Dupnica are 12th with 14 points (4 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses; goals 11:12). The four‑point gap and a superior goal difference underline Beroe’s stronger campaign so far. The home/away split further highlights Beroe’s quality: they top the home table with 16 points from six home games, while Marek are outside the top eight in the home standings.

Win Probability: Marek Dupnica or Beroe Stara Zagora?

Based on the odds, recent form, league positions, and home advantage, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows:

• Marek Dupnica win: 32%
• Draw: 43%
• Beroe Stara Zagora win: 25%

The draw is the most probable result. The bookmakers’ raw odds implied a draw chance of around 46%, but adjusting for Beroe’s better league standing and slightly stronger recent form trims the draw probability to 43% while increasing Beroe’s away win chance to 25%. Marek’s home edge keeps them close, but the numbers point firmly toward a stalemate.

Odds & Match Prediction

The available 1X2 odds across three bookmakers average 2.74 for a Marek Dupnica win, 1.93 for the draw, and 4.16 for a Beroe Stara Zagora win. Bookmakers see the draw as the favourite, and that aligns with the form and table analysis. Our prediction based on the stats is that the match is most likely to end level. A low‑scoring draw fits the profile of a tight B PFG contest where the away side carries slightly better league form but struggles for consistency on the road.