Nesebar - Beroe Stara Zagora prediction 20 September 2026

The Nesebar vs Beroe Stara Zagora prediction for this B PFG match on September 20, 2026, points to a tight contest. Nesebar, playing at home, are slight favorites with a 42% win probability according to our analysis. Both teams sit close in the standings, separated by just one point, making this an important fixture in the Bulgarian second division.

Team Form

Nesebar have shown strong home form, winning three of their last five matches overall (W, L, D, W, W). In their most recent home games, they defeated Rilski Sportist Samokov 2-1, drew 1-1 with Yantra Gabrovo, and thrashed Pirin Blagoevgrad 7-0. Their only recent loss came away at Marek 1915 Dupnitsa (0-1).

Beroe Stara Zagora have been solid but draw-prone, recording two wins and three draws in their last five (W, D, D, D, W). Their away form includes two draws: 2-2 at Dobrudzha 1919 and 2-2 at Etar Veliko Tarnovo. Their last match was a 1-0 home win over Sportist Svoge.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous head-to-head record between these two sides, so this match will be their first meeting in the B PFG.

League Table Positions

After eight matches each, Nesebar sit 8th with 13 points (4 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, goal difference +4). Beroe Stara Zagora are 9th with 12 points (3 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, goal difference +3). At home, Nesebar are 5th in the home table with 10 points from 5 games (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Beroe’s away record is not among the top eight, indicating a potential home advantage.

Win Probability: Nesebar or Beroe Stara Zagora?

Our win probability calculation combines odds, team form, head-to-head, league positions, and home advantage. Using the available odds (home 2.20, draw 3.10, away 3.00) as a base, we normalized them and adjusted for Nesebar’s strong home form and Beroe’s draws away. The final probabilities are: Nesebar win: 42%, draw: 28%, Beroe Stara Zagora win: 30%. The home edge and recent results give Nesebar a slight advantage, but Beroe’s resilience makes them competitive.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer mixed odds for this match. One set prices Nesebar at 2.88, draw at 1.92, and Beroe at 3.80; another set has Nesebar at 2.20, draw at 3.10, and Beroe at 3.00. The second set suggests a more balanced contest, with Nesebar as slight favorites. Based on the stats, Nesebar’s home advantage and recent form give them a narrow edge, but Beroe’s consistent draws mean a draw cannot be ruled out. The prediction leans towards a home win or a low-scoring draw.