Besat Kermanshah - Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas prediction 5 October 2026

The Besat Kermanshah vs Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas prediction for October 5, 2026, points to a tight Azadegan League contest where the draw is the most probable outcome. Bookmakers and recent form both suggest Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas holds a slight edge, but Besat Kermanshah’s home advantage keeps the match finely balanced. Our win probability model gives Besat Kermanshah a 24% chance, the draw 46%, and Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas 30%.

Team Form

Besat Kermanshah come into this match in poor shape, with only one win in their last five outings (W1 D1 L3). They lost 1-0 at Mes Rafsanjan on September 29, beat Havadar SC 3-0 away on September 22, drew 0-0 at home with Naft Gachsaran on September 16, and suffered back-to-back 2-0 defeats against Fard Alborz FC (July 3) and Ario (June 27). The team has failed to score in four of those five matches, highlighting a major attacking concern.

Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas, on the other hand, are in solid form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five (W3 D1 L1). They won 1-0 at Naft Masjed Soleyman on September 22, drew 0-0 at Mes Kerman on July 3, beat Navad Urmia FC 2-0 away on June 21, lost 1-0 at Ario on June 16, and defeated Shahrdari Noshahr 1-0 at home on June 10. The visitors have kept three clean sheets in that run, underlining their defensive stability.

Head-to-Head Record

The two previous meetings between these sides both went the way of Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas or ended level. On December 20, 2025, Besat Kermanshah drew 1-1 at home. Earlier, on October 29, 2024, Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas won 2-1 at home. Overall, the head-to-head record shows 1 win for the away side and 1 draw, with Besat Kermanshah yet to taste victory in this fixture.

League Table Positions

In the Azadegan League standings, Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas sit 7th with 5 points from 3 matches (1 win, 2 draws, 0 losses; goals scored 2, conceded 1). Besat Kermanshah are 10th with 4 points from 3 games (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss; goals scored 3, conceded 1). Notably, Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas boast a perfect away record this season – 1 win from 1 road trip with no goals conceded. Besat Kermanshah’s home form is not detailed in the top-eight home standings, but their overall record suggests they have been inconsistent.

Win Probability: Besat Kermanshah or Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas?

Based on the available odds, recent form, head-to-head data, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Besat Kermanshah win: 24%
• Draw: 46%
• Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas win: 30%

The draw emerges as the single most likely result, driven by bookmaker odds that heavily favour a stalemate (implied probability around 47% after removing the margin). However, Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas’s superior recent form, unbeaten H2H record, and higher league position give them a noticeably better chance of winning than the home side. Besat Kermanshah’s home advantage is offset by their poor attacking output and run of defeats. Therefore, while a draw is the safest prediction, Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas are the more probable winner if the match produces a decisive result.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for the 1X2 market show a home win for Besat Kermanshah at 3.50, a draw at 1.95, and an away win for Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas at 3.40. These prices clearly indicate that bookmakers see a draw as the favourite outcome. Taking into account the stats – especially Palayesh Naft Bandar Abbas’s strong away form and Besat Kermanshah’s struggles – our final match prediction is a low-scoring draw, with a 1-1 scoreline a realistic possibility. However, the visitors have the quality to snatch a narrow win if they can exploit the home side’s lack of confidence.