Besiktas - Istanbul Basaksehir prediction 26 October 2026

Our Besiktas vs Istanbul Basaksehir prediction is set for October 26, 2026, at 16:00 in the Super League. The match at Vodafone Park sees Besiktas as the clear favorite with a 60% win probability, while Istanbul Basaksehir enters as the underdog at 16%.

Team Form

Besiktas have had mixed results lately, with a form pattern of D, L, W, W, L in their last five outings. Highlights include a 3-2 away win against TSG 1899 Hoffenheim in the UEFA Europa League on October 15 and a 2-1 home victory over Kocaelispor on October 11. However, they are coming off a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace on October 22 and a 2-0 away loss to Trabzonspor on October 19.

Istanbul Basaksehir's recent form stands at W, D, W, L, L. They have tasted two heavy away defeats: 5-0 against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler on September 13 and a 2-3 home loss to Galatasaray on September 4. Positively, they beat Genclerbirligi 4-0 on September 19 and Gaziantep FK 2-1 on October 18.

Head-to-Head Record

Looking at head-to-head matches, the teams are closely matched over their history. Istanbul Basaksehir edges it with 10 wins to Besiktas' 8, with 8 draws. The most recent meetings show a 3-2 away win for Besiktas on February 15, 2026, and a 2-1 home win on September 13, 2025. There have been two draws in the last five encounters, including a 0-0 stalemate on November 10, 2024.

League Table Positions

Besiktas sit 6th in the Super League overall standings with 15 points from 8 matches (5 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Their home record is flawless: 4 wins from 4 games, scoring 12 and conceding just 3, placing them 3rd in the home table. Istanbul Basaksehir are 12th overall with 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses). On the road, they are not listed in the top 8 of the away standings, indicating a weak point compared to Besiktas' perfect home form.

Win Probability: Besiktas or Istanbul Basaksehir?

Based on the available odds and key performance data, here is the calculated win probability for this match. By averaging the best available odds (Besiktas: 1.67, Draw: 2.70, Istanbul Basaksehir: 5.80) and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, we get a baseline. Adjusting for Besiktas' 100% home win record this season and Istanbul Basaksehir's poor away performances, the final probabilities are:

• Besiktas win: 60%
• Draw: 24%
• Istanbul Basaksehir win: 16%

The data strongly points to a home win. Besiktas has a 60% chance of winning, the draw is at 24%, and Istanbul Basaksehir has a 16% chance. This reflects Besiktas' perfect home form and Basaksehir's defensive struggles on the road.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Besiktas as the favorite, with odds as low as 1.61 and an average around 1.67 for a home win. The draw is priced around 2.70, while an away win for Istanbul Basaksehir is as high as 5.80. Based on the stats, a Besiktas victory is the most likely match outcome. Considering their strong home scoring, the total goals could lean towards over 2.5, but the primary prediction is a home win.