Ogre United - BFC Daugavpils prediction 11 October 2026
Ogre United
BFC DaugavpilsOgre United
AudaGrobinas SCOgre UnitedOgre UnitedBFC DaugavpilsOgre UnitedFK Progress Super NovaAudaOgre UnitedOgre UnitedLiepajas MetalurgsTukums 2000Ogre UnitedOgre UnitedRigas Futbola SkolaOgre UnitedJelgavaRiga FCOgre UnitedAudaOgre UnitedGrobinas SCOgre UnitedOgre UnitedBFC DaugavpilsFK Progress Super NovaOgre UnitedLiepajas MetalurgsOgre UnitedJelgavaBFC DaugavpilsBFC DaugavpilsAudaOgre UnitedBFC DaugavpilsLiepajas MetalurgsBFC DaugavpilsBFC DaugavpilsRigas Futbola SkolaRiga FCBFC DaugavpilsGrobinas SCBFC DaugavpilsFK Progress Super NovaBFC DaugavpilsBFC DaugavpilsTukums 2000BFC DaugavpilsJelgavaAudaBFC DaugavpilsOgre UnitedBFC DaugavpilsBFC DaugavpilsLiepajas MetalurgsRigas Futbola SkolaBFC DaugavpilsBFC DaugavpilsRiga FCOgre UnitedBFC DaugavpilsOgre UnitedBFC DaugavpilsBFC DaugavpilsOgre UnitedBFC DaugavpilsOgre United| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rigas Futbola Skola | 33 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 81:24 | +57 | 83 |
| 2 |  Riga FC | 33 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 90:31 | +59 | 79 |
| 3 |  Auda | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 53:34 | +19 | 64 |
| 4 |  Liepajas Metalurgs | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 46:46 | 0 | 47 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 39:37 | +2 | 45 |
| 6 |  FK Progress Super Nova | 33 | 11 | 5 | 17 | 32:47 | -15 | 38 |
| 7 |  Jelgava | 33 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 34:56 | -22 | 32 |
| 8 |  Grobinas SC | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 25:56 | -31 | 29 |
| 9 |  Tukums 2000 | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 44:65 | -21 | 25 |
| 10 |  Ogre United | 33 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 33:81 | -48 | 18 |
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction (Oct 11)
The Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils prediction for October 11, 2026, in the Latvian Virsliga points to an away win, with BFC Daugavpils holding a 55% chance of victory. The match kicks off at 12:00 local time, and bookmakers have priced the visitors as clear favorites at odds around 1.77. Ogre United, bottom of the table, face an uphill battle against a side they have never beaten in three previous meetings.
Team Form
Ogre United
Ogre United's recent form has been poor, with just one win in their last five matches (W1 D1 L3). They managed a 1-0 home victory over FK Progress Super Nova on September 20, but suffered defeats to Auda (0-1), Tukums 2000 (1-2), and Rigas Futbola Skola (0-3), along with a 2-2 draw against Liepajas Metalurgs. At home, they have struggled all season, collecting only a handful of points.
BFC Daugavpils
BFC Daugavpils have been inconsistent, failing to win any of their last five outings (D3 L2). They drew 0-0 at Liepajas Metalurgs, 1-1 at Riga FC, and 0-0 at FK Progress Super Nova, while losing 1-2 at home to Rigas Futbola Skola and 0-1 at Grobinas SC. Despite the lack of wins, they have been tough to beat on the road, with three draws in their last four away matches.
Head-to-Head Record
BFC Daugavpils have dominated this fixture, winning all three previous Virsliga encounters this season. The most recent meeting on July 19, 2026, ended in a 4-0 away win for Daugavpils. Earlier, they won 3-1 and 2-1 at home. Across these matches, Daugavpils have scored 9 goals and conceded just 2, highlighting a clear gulf in class.
League Table Positions
Ogre United sit at the bottom of the Virsliga table in 10th place with only 18 points from 31 matches (4 wins, 6 draws, 21 losses). They have scored 30 goals and conceded a league-high 76. BFC Daugavpils are 5th with 39 points (10 wins, 9 draws, 12 losses) and a balanced goal difference of 35:35. The 21-point gap between the sides underlines the difference in quality this season.
Win Probability: Ogre United or BFC Daugavpils?
Based on the available data, the win probabilities are: Ogre United 20%, draw 25%, BFC Daugavpils 55%. These estimates start from the bookmaker odds (home 4.03, draw 3.94, away 1.77), which imply a 53% chance for an away win after removing the margin. We have adjusted slightly upward for Daugavpils given their perfect head-to-head record, superior league position, and Ogre United's defensive frailties. The draw probability remains significant because Daugavpils have drawn three of their last five away games.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers offer odds around 4.03 for an Ogre United home win, 3.94 for the draw, and 1.77 for a BFC Daugavpils away victory. These prices reflect the visitors' strong favoritism. Our prediction: BFC Daugavpils are the most likely winners, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out given their recent away form. A bet on Daugavpils to win offers value, but cautious punters may consider the draw no bet market.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils โ FAQ
- Who will win Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
- BFC Daugavpils are the favorites with a 55% win probability, while Ogre United have just a 20% chance and the draw is at 25%. The visitors' dominant head-to-head record and higher league position make them the likely winners.
- What is the win probability for BFC Daugavpils?
- BFC Daugavpils have a 55% chance of winning this match, based on odds, form, and their three previous wins over Ogre United this season. Their away form includes several draws, but they are expected to edge this contest.
- When is the Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils match?
- The match takes place on October 11, 2026, at 12:00 local time. It is a Virsliga fixture, the top football league in Latvia.
- What are the odds for Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils?
- The latest odds show an Ogre United home win at 4.03, a draw at 3.94, and a BFC Daugavpils away win at 1.77. These odds imply a clear advantage for the away side.
- What is the head-to-head record between Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils?
- In three previous meetings this season, BFC Daugavpils have won all three, scoring 9 goals and conceding only 2. Ogre United have yet to earn a point against them.