Bhayangkara Surabaya United - Adhyaksa Farmel FC prediction 19 September 2026

This Bhayangkara Surabaya United vs Adhyaksa Farmel FC prediction covers the Liga 1 match on September 19, 2026, at 12:00. Bhayangkara Surabaya United are the strong favorites with a 57% win probability, while visitors Adhyaksa Farmel FC have just a 17% chance according to our betting tips analysis.

Team Form

Bhayangkara Surabaya United's last five matches: D, D, W, L, W. They started the new Liga 1 campaign with two draws – a 2-2 away at Dewa United Banten FC on Sep 11 and a 1-1 home against Persebaya Surabaya on Sep 5. Earlier in May, they recorded a huge 7-0 home win over PSBS Biak Numfor, a 1-4 away loss to Bali United Persisam, and a 3-1 home win over Madura United.

Adhyaksa Farmel FC's form: L, L, W, D, L. In their two Liga 1 outings this season, they suffered heavy defeats: a 1-4 home loss to Bali United Persisam on Sep 12 and a 0-4 thrashing at Arema Indonesia on Sep 4. Before that, playing in Liga 2, they beat Persipura Jayapura 1-0 away, drew 1-1 at PSMS Medan, and lost 1-3 at Bekasi City.

Head-to-Head Record

The only head-to-head meeting between these sides was a 1-1 draw in Liga 2 on December 1, 2024, when Adhyaksa Farmel FC hosted Bhayangkara Surabaya United. There are no previous Liga 1 meetings.

League Table Positions

Bhayangkara Surabaya United sit 11th in the Liga 1 overall table with 2 points from 2 matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses; goals 3-3). Adhyaksa Farmel FC are not listed in the top 12 but their two defeats suggest they are near the bottom of the standings. The home side also does not appear in the home standings, while the visitors are absent from all league table sections provided.

Win Probability: Bhayangkara Surabaya United or Adhyaksa Farmel FC?

Based on average odds and team strength, Bhayangkara Surabaya United has a 57% chance of winning this match, a draw is at 26%, and Adhyaksa Farmel FC has a 17% chance. These numbers are derived from the inverse of bookmaker odds, normalized to remove the margin, adjusting for home advantage and recent form. The home side's unbeaten start, despite only draws, gives them a clear upper hand against a team that has lost both Liga 1 games by large margins.

Conclusion: Bhayangkara Surabaya United are the more likely winners, but the draw probability is notable given their two draws already this season.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced a home win as low as 1.42, a draw around 2.48–4.57, and an away win as high as 6.00. These betting odds strongly reflect the disparity between the teams. Our match outcome prediction aligns with the odds: Bhayangkara Surabaya United to win. However, bettors should consider the double chance or a draw no bet if looking for safer betting tips.

Final prediction: Bhayangkara Surabaya United are expected to secure three points, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out based on the early-season head-to-head and current form.