Madura United - Bhayangkara Surabaya United prediction 16 October 2026

Looking for a Madura United vs Bhayangkara Surabaya United prediction? The Liga 1 match kicks off on October 16, 2026, at 13:00 local time. Our analysis gives Madura United a 35% chance of winning, the draw a 35% probability, and Bhayangkara Surabaya United a 30% chance.

Team Form

Madura United come into this fixture on the back of a 2–0 away loss to Persik Kediri (Oct 9), but that’s their only defeat in the last five outings. Prior to that, they recorded four consecutive wins: 2–1 at home to PSIM Yogyakarta, 3–1 away to PSS Sleman, 2–0 home win over Persijap Jepara, and a 3–1 friendly success at Borneo Samarinda. The side has been prolific at home, scoring four goals in two Liga 1 home matches without conceding.

Bhayangkara Surabaya United are unbeaten in their last five competitive matches. Their most recent result was a 2–2 draw at Arema Indonesia (Oct 10). The sequence also includes a 2–0 home victory against Adhyaksa Farmel FC, away draws 2–2 at Dewa United Banten FC and 1–1 at Persebaya Surabaya, and a huge 7–0 home win over PSBS Biak Numfor back in May. The visitors have drawn three of their four league games so far, showing resilience but a tendency to share points.

Head-to-Head Record

In four previous meetings, Bhayangkara Surabaya United hold a clear edge: two wins and two draws, while Madura United have never beaten them. The last encounter on May 11, 2026, ended 3–1 in favor of Bhayangkara at their own ground. The most recent clash at this venue (September 12, 2025) finished 0–0. The head-to-head suggests Bhayangkara know how to frustrate the hosts.

League Table Positions

Madura United sit 4th in the Liga 1 overall standings with 9 points from four games (3 wins, 1 loss). Their home form is perfect: 2 wins from 2, 4 goals scored, 1 conceded. Bhayangkara Surabaya United are 9th with 6 points, having drawn three and won one of their four matches. Away from home, they have collected two draws from two games, both with 2–2 scorelines. The gap in the table reflects Madura’s more ruthless finishing at home.

Win Probability: Madura United or Bhayangkara Surabaya United?

Based on the available odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following probabilities: Madura United win – 35%, draw – 35%, Bhayangkara Surabaya United win – 30%. Bookmakers’ implied odds initially pointed towards a draw-heavy contest (around 38% for the draw after removing the margin), but Madura United’s flawless home record and Bhayangkara’s poor converting record away (only draws) adjust these numbers. The historical H2H, where Bhayangkara have won 50% of meetings without losing, prevents the home side from being a clear favorite. Overall, a draw is the most likely single result, closely followed by a narrow home win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer home win odds in the range of 2.65–2.70, a draw at 2.12–2.25, and an away win at 2.75–2.88. These figures reinforce the view that the market expects a tight affair with a draw as a strong possibility. Our Madura United vs Bhayangkara Surabaya United prediction is a closely fought contest, with a scoring draw (1–1) the most realistic outcome given both teams’ scoring and defensive numbers. Madura United’s home firepower may give them a slight edge, but Bhayangkara’s unbeaten H2H record cannot be ignored.