Bognor Regis Town - Hartley Wintney prediction 6 October 2026

Bognor Regis Town vs Hartley Wintney prediction for the Isthmian League. South Central Division match on October 6, 2026, at 19:45. Bognor Regis Town are favorites with a 50% win probability, while Hartley Wintney have a 22% chance, and the draw is at 28%. Read on for team form, head-to-head record, league table positions, and the best odds.

Team Form

Bognor Regis Town

Bognor Regis Town are in excellent form with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. They defeated Kingstonian 5-4 away, drew 0-0 at home to AFC Portchester, beat Winchester City 2-1 away, won 3-1 at home against Harrow Borough, and secured a 1-0 victory at Raynes Park Vale. The team has scored 11 goals and conceded 6 in this period, showing both attacking strength and defensive solidity. They have kept two clean sheets, highlighting their defensive improvements.

Hartley Wintney

Hartley Wintney have recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. They thrashed Littlehampton Town 8-1 away, drew 2-2 at home with Hendon, edged Hayes & Yeading United 3-2 at home, won 1-0 at Binfield, but then lost 0-2 at home to Egham Town. With 14 goals scored and 7 conceded, they are capable of high scoring but have shown inconsistency. The 8-1 away win was a standout result, but the subsequent home defeat raises questions.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met twice in recent history, with Bognor Regis Town remaining unbeaten. On November 8, 2025, Bognor Regis Town won 2-1 at home. The most recent clash on March 7, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw at Hartley Wintney. The head-to-head record stands at 1 win for Bognor Regis Town and 1 draw.

League Table Positions

In the Isthmian League. South Central Division, Bognor Regis Town sit 12th with 54 points from 41 matches (15 wins, 9 draws, 17 losses). Hartley Wintney are outside the top 12, indicating a lower position in the standings. Bognor Regis Town have a slight edge in league performance, with a goal difference of -3, while Hartley Wintney's exact position is unknown but they are below the top 12.

Win Probability: Bognor Regis Town or Hartley Wintney?

Based on the available odds, the implied probabilities are approximately 37% for a Bognor Regis Town win, 33% for a draw, and 30% for a Hartley Wintney win. However, after adjusting for recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities: Bognor Regis Town has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and Hartley Wintney has a 22% chance. Bognor Regis Town's strong run of 4 wins in 5 games and their unbeaten H2H record make them the clear favorites.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer varying odds for this match. The home win is priced between 2.20 and 2.62, the draw between 2.30 and 3.70, and the away win between 2.55 and 3.30. These odds reflect Bognor Regis Town as the favorite. Our prediction: based on the stats, Bognor Regis Town are the more likely winners. However, the draw odds are relatively low, so a stalemate cannot be ruled out. For betting tips, a home win or a double chance on Bognor Regis Town or draw could be considered. Given both teams' ability to score, the over 2.5 goals market may also be worth considering.