Cagliari - Bologna prediction 24 October 2026

The Cagliari vs Bologna prediction points to a fascinatingly tight Serie A contest at the Unipol Domus in Cagliari on Oct 24 at 14:00. Based on deep analysis of the latest form, head-to-head dominance, and bookmaker odds, Bologna enter the match as the marginal favorites with a 38% win probability, while hosts Cagliari hold a 34% chance and the draw is a significant 28% probability.

Team Form

Cagliari have been impressive in recent weeks, winning three of their last five outings. A 1-1 stalemate at home against Juventus on Oct 11 showed resilience, while victories away at Udinese (0-1) and Atalanta (1-2) highlight their strength on the road. Their sole defeat in this run was a 2-1 home loss to Hellas Verona in the Cup on Sep 3. Bologna, meanwhile, have only one loss in their last five. That lone defeat came in a tight 1-0 result away at Napoli on Sep 13. However, they bounced back with a 1-1 home draw against Torino and a convincing 2-1 victory at Lecce. Most recently, Bologna fell 3-1 at home to Inter Milan on Oct 17, a result that checks their momentum but comes against elite opposition.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record heavily favors the visitors. Across their last 8 encounters, Bologna have racked up 6 wins, while Cagliari have managed just a single victory, alongside 1 draw. The most recent meeting on May 3 ended in a 0-0 stalemate in Bologna, but prior to that, Bologna secured back-to-back 2-0 away wins in Cagliari and a 2-1 home victory. Cagliari’s only triumph in this span came back on Jan 14, 2024, a 2-1 home success.

League Table Positions

Cagliari sit 7th in the overall Serie A standings with 13 points from 6 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), boasting a solid defensive record of just 3 goals conceded. Bologna's data is not available in the standings snapshot, but Cagliari's home form is not specifically detailed in the home table; however, they are notably 3rd in the away standings with a perfect 3 wins from 3. Bologna's presence is felt in the context of a highly competitive league where the margins are thin.

Win Probability: Cagliari or Bologna?

Calculating the odds inverse and normalizing across bookmakers giving Cagliari a 32% implied chance and Bologna 35% with a 33% draw, we adjust for the real-world data. Cagliari's superior recent form and home advantage are offset dramatically by Bologna's historical dominance in this fixture. Therefore, the final adjusted probabilities are: Cagliari win — 34%, Draw — 28%, Bologna win — 38%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see a very evenly matched encounter. The best available odds show Cagliari at 3.20, the draw at the low price of 2.00, and Bologna at 2.54. The unusually short odds on the draw underline the expectation of a tight contest. Based on the stats, Bologna’s historical edge makes them the slight favorite. Our prediction is a cautious backing of Bologna on the double chance, but the high draw probability demands respect for a stalemate.