Lecce - Bologna prediction 11 October 2026
Lecce
BolognaLecce
JuventusUdineseLecceLecceBolognaAC MilanLecceLecceMonzaCagliariLecceLecceAS RomaVeneziaLeccePalermoLecceLecceAC MonopoliLecceIstra 1961LecceSSU Politehnica TimisoaraSzombathelyi HaladasLecceLecceGenoaSassuoloLecceCagliariBolognaBolognaInter MilanLecceBolognaBolognaTorinoNapoliBolognaBolognaSassuoloAtalantaBolognaBolognaLazioBrightonBolognaBolognaIraklis 1908BolognaHeidenheimBolognaArminia BielefeldBolognaInter MilanAtalantaBolognaNapoliBolognaLecceBolognaBolognaLecceLecceBolognaLecceBolognaBolognaLecceBolognaLecceLecceBolognaLecceBolognaBolognaLecceBolognaLecceLecceBolognaLecceBologna| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23:10 | +13 | 22 |
| 2 |  Lazio | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 16:5 | +11 | 22 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 19:6 | +13 | 18 |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:7 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 |  Como 1907 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:7 | +7 | 17 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17:13 | +4 | 14 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:8 | +3 | 14 |
| 8 |  Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | +2 | 13 |
| 9 |  Cagliari | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | +3 | 11 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Lecce | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9:14 | -5 | 9 |
| 13 | Bologna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:10 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Sassuolo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 |  Monza | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15:18 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:13 | -7 | 7 |
| 17 |  Udinese | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:19 | -10 | 4 |
| 19 |  Parma | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6:17 | -11 | 3 |
Lecce vs Bologna Prediction (Oct 11)
The Lecce vs Bologna prediction for this Serie A fixture on Oct 11, 2026, suggests a closely fought match where a draw is the most likely result. Our win probability analysis gives Lecce a 25% chance, Bologna 35%, and the draw a 40% probability. The game kicks off at 14:00 local time at Stadio Via del Mare in Lecce, with referee Luca Pairetto officiating.
Team Form
Lecce's recent form has been mixed, with two wins and three losses in their last five outings (L, W, L, L, W). They scored 5 goals and conceded 10 in that span. At home, they beat Monza 3-2 but were thrashed 4-0 by AS Roma. Away, they lost to AC Milan (3-0) and Cagliari (1-0) before winning 2-0 at Venezia. This inconsistency makes them unpredictable.
Bologna are in poor form, failing to win any of their last five matches (D, L, D, L, L). They netted only 3 goals while conceding 6. Their away record is particularly concerning: defeats at Napoli (1-0) and Atalanta (1-0) without scoring. Home draws against Torino (1-1) and Sassuolo (2-2) and a loss to Lazio (0-1) complete a disappointing run.
Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record heavily favors Bologna. In the last five meetings, Bologna have won three and drawn two, with Lecce yet to register a victory. Bologna outscored Lecce 9-2 across these matches:
- Apr 12, 2026: Bologna 2-0 Lecce
- Sep 28, 2025: Lecce 2-2 Bologna
- Feb 9, 2025: Lecce 0-0 Bologna
- Nov 2, 2024: Bologna 1-0 Lecce
- Feb 11, 2024: Bologna 4-0 Lecce
Overall, in this fixture, Bologna have 8 wins, Lecce 0, and 3 draws. This historical dominance gives Bologna a psychological edge.
League Table Positions
Lecce occupy 12th place in the Serie A standings with 6 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). They have scored 5 goals and conceded 10. Bologna are positioned lower in the table, outside the top 12, indicating a slower start. Neither side features in the top 8 of the home or away standings, highlighting their struggles this season.
Win Probability: Lecce or Bologna?
After analyzing the odds, form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities:
- Lecce win: 25%
- Draw: 40%
- Bologna win: 35%
The draw emerges as the most likely outcome. Bologna's historical dominance and slightly shorter odds give them an edge, but their current poor formโespecially awayโlowers their win probability. Lecce's home advantage and occasional wins keep them in contention, but the head-to-head record and overall quality gap make a home win less probable. Therefore, based on the stats, a stalemate is the safest prediction.
Lecce vs Bologna Prediction: Odds & Betting Tips
Bookmakers see Bologna as the narrow favorite. The average odds across multiple bookies are 4.25 for a Lecce win, 2.30 for a draw, and 2.25 for a Bologna victory. These odds imply a tight match, with the draw priced almost identically to an away win. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards a draw, but a low-scoring affair could go either way. For betting tips, the draw or under 2.5 goals might offer value given both teams' recent struggles in front of goal.
Lecce vs Bologna โ FAQ
- Who will win Lecce vs Bologna?
- Based on our analysis, the most likely outcome is a draw with a 40% probability. Bologna has a 35% chance, while Lecce sits at 25%. The head-to-head record and current form point to a tight, low-scoring match.
- What is the win probability for Bologna?
- Bologna has a 35% chance to win this match. Despite their poor recent form, their strong historical record against Lecce (8 wins in 11 meetings) and slightly shorter odds make them the second favorite behind the draw.
- When is the Lecce vs Bologna match?
- The match takes place on Oct 11, 2026, at 14:00 local time. It is a Serie A fixture, held at Stadio Via del Mare in Lecce, Italy.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The average odds are 4.25 for a Lecce win, 2.30 for a draw, and 2.25 for a Bologna win. Bologna is the bookmakers' favorite, but the draw odds are very close, reflecting the expected tight contest.
- What is the head-to-head record between Lecce and Bologna?
- In the last five meetings, Bologna have won three and drawn two, with Lecce failing to win. Overall, Bologna lead the head-to-head with 8 wins, 3 draws, and Lecce yet to win. The most recent match ended 2-0 to Bologna in April 2026.