Bologna - Torino prediction 19 September 2026

Our Bologna vs Torino prediction for this Serie A match on Sep 19 at 13:00 gives Bologna a 52% chance of winning, with the draw at 27% and Torino at 21%. The game at Stadio Renato Dall’Ara sees the home side as the favorite based on odds and head-to-head record, but recent form leaves room for an upset.

Team Form

Bologna’s last five matches: D, L, L, L, W. In Serie A, they drew 2-2 with Sassuolo, lost 0-1 at Atalanta, and lost 0-1 at home to Lazio. The only win came in a friendly against Iraklis 1908 (2-0). Their attack has managed just two goals in the last three league outings, while the defense has conceded in every competitive match this season.

Torino’s last five: W, L, L, L, W. Their league results include a 2-1 win at Fiorentina, a 1-2 loss at Sassuolo, and a 1-2 home loss to AC Milan. The two wins were both away from home, but three defeats in five games highlight inconsistency. They have scored in four of those five matches, so they carry a threat on the break.

Head-to-Head Record

In 23 previous meetings, Bologna have 8 wins, Torino 6, and 9 draws. The last five encounters show Bologna dominance: three wins, one draw, one Torino win. The most recent clash (Feb 15, 2026) ended Torino 1-2 Bologna. At this venue, Bologna are unbeaten in the last three H2Hs (W2 D1), including a 3-2 victory in February 2025 and a 2-0 win in November 2023.

League Table Positions

Neither Bologna nor Torino appear in the top 12 of the early Serie A standings. The table is led by AS Roma, Inter, and Lazio with perfect records. Both sides are outside the top half, making this a mid-to-lower table clash where three points are vital to climb away from danger.

Win Probability: Bologna or Torino?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the following outcome probabilities:

• Bologna win: 52%
• Draw: 27%
• Torino win: 21%

The base probabilities were derived from the inverse of the best available 1X2 odds (1.94 home, 3.65 draw, 4.30 away), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin. We then adjusted for Bologna’s strong home H2H record (unbeaten in three) and the fact they are the home side, despite their poor recent league form. Torino’s two away wins this season add some weight, but their overall inconsistency and historical struggles at this ground keep their chances low. The draw probability remains significant because both teams have shown a tendency to share points in this fixture (9 draws in 23 meetings).

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Bologna as the clear favorite. The opening odds show a home win at 1.94, a draw at 3.65, and an away win at 4.30. Other bookies offer similar lines, with home odds as low as 1.80 and away odds as high as 4.33. Based on the stats, Bologna are more likely to win, but the value may lie in the draw given the H2H history and both teams’ shaky form. Our prediction: Bologna to win, but a low-scoring draw cannot be ruled out.