Paderborn 07 II - Borussia Dortmund II prediction 21 September 2026

Paderborn 07 II vs Borussia Dortmund II prediction for the Regionalliga match on Sep 21 at 17:00. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Borussia Dortmund II are slight favorites with a 35% win probability, while Paderborn 07 II have a 30% chance and the draw stands at 35%.

Team Form

Paderborn 07 II have struggled for consistency, winning just one of their last five matches (W1 D2 L2). Their recent results: a 2-4 home loss to Bocholt, a 1-1 home draw with Bonner, a 1-1 away draw at SV Rodinghausen, a 1-3 home defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach II, and a 3-2 away win at Schalke 04 II. At home, they have failed to win in their last three outings (D1 L2), conceding eight goals in those games.

Borussia Dortmund II, in contrast, are unbeaten in their last five matches (W3 D2). They recorded a 2-1 home win over Westfalia Rhynern, a 0-0 draw at Borussia Monchengladbach II, a 3-1 home victory against Schalke 04 II, a 1-1 draw at VfL Bochum II, and a 5-1 friendly win over Jong FC Utrecht. Their away form has been solid, with two draws and a win in their last three competitive away games.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met twice in the Regionalliga, with each team winning their home fixture. Paderborn 07 II triumphed 3-0 at home in July 2025, while Borussia Dortmund II won 1-0 at their ground in December 2025. The head-to-head record stands at one win apiece, with no draws. The home advantage has been decisive in this matchup so far.

Win Probability: Paderborn 07 II or Borussia Dortmund II?

Using the average bookmaker odds (home 2.70, draw 2.39, away 2.56), the implied probabilities after removing the margin are approximately 31.4% for a Paderborn win, 35.5% for a draw, and 33.1% for a Dortmund victory. After adjusting for recent form — Dortmund II’s unbeaten run versus Paderborn’s poor home results — and the head-to-head pattern, we assign the following win probabilities:

• Paderborn 07 II win: 30%
• Draw: 35%
• Borussia Dortmund II win: 35%

Borussia Dortmund II have a slight edge overall, but the draw remains the most likely single outcome. Paderborn’s home advantage and their 3-0 win in the last meeting at this venue keep them in contention.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers are offering tight odds for this Regionalliga clash. The best available odds are around 2.75 for a home win, 2.45 for the draw, and 2.70 for an away win. The average odds of 2.70 (home), 2.39 (draw), and 2.56 (away) indicate that the market views a draw as the most probable result. However, Borussia Dortmund II’s superior form makes them the marginal favorites in our adjusted probabilities.

Our prediction: a draw or a narrow away win for Borussia Dortmund II. A 1-1 scoreline is a realistic outcome given both teams’ recent scoring records. For betting tips, the Double Chance (Draw or Borussia Dortmund II) offers value, while the Under 2.5 goals market could also be considered based on the tight nature of the fixture.