Botev Plovdiv - Botev Vratsa prediction 14 October 2026

Our Botev Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa prediction for the Bulgarian Cup clash on October 14 (17:00) looks at the betting odds, team form, and head-to-head record to determine the likely outcome. Botev Plovdiv enter the match as strong favorites with a 55% win probability, while Botev Vratsa have just a 20% chance of an away upset.

Team Form

Botev Plovdiv have been in excellent form, winning four of their last five matches (W-W-W-W-L). Their most recent result was a 1-0 home victory over Slavia Sofia on October 10. Prior to that, they recorded wins at Septemvri Sofia (0-3), at home against Lokomotiv Plovdiv (2-0), and at Arda Kardzhali (3-2). The only blemish was a 1-3 home defeat to Levski Sofia on August 30. Over this period, the team has scored 10 goals and conceded 5, showing a solid attacking output.

Botev Vratsa, in contrast, are struggling for consistency. Their last five matches read L-L-D-D-W (one win, two draws, two losses). After a 3-2 away win at Septemvri Sofia on September 4, they went four competitive matches without a victory: a 0-0 draw at home to Levski Sofia, a 2-2 draw at Dunav Ruse, a 1-2 friendly loss to Slavia Sofia, and a 0-1 home defeat to Spartak Varna on October 10. Vratsa have scored just 4 goals in their last 4 competitive outings, with defensive issues at the back.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time head-to-head record between these two sides stands at 23 meetings, with Botev Plovdiv winning 12, 4 draws, and Botev Vratsa winning 7. In the last five encounters, Botev Plovdiv have won three and Botev Vratsa two. The most recent match, on August 24, 2026, saw Botev Vratsa win 1-0 at home. Earlier in 2026, Vratsa also stunned Plovdiv 3-1 away in March. However, Plovdiv won the two prior meetings – a 2-1 away victory in October 2025 and a 3-1 home win in November 2024. The head-to-head suggests a competitive rivalry, but Plovdiv’s overall edge is clear.

Win Probability: Botev Plovdiv or Botev Vratsa?

We calculate Botev Plovdiv’s win probability at 55%, the draw at 25%, and Botev Vratsa’s at 20%. This is derived by normalizing the bookmakers’ 1X2 odds (1.53 home win, 2.40 draw, 4.75 away win) to remove the margin, which gave a base of approximately 51% for Plovdiv, and then adjusting upwards due to Plovdiv’s superior current form (4 wins in 5) and the home advantage. Vratsa’s poor run of results and lower odds justify their 20% chance. The draw remains a plausible outcome at 25%, given Vratsa’s two recent goalless stalemates.

Botev Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa Prediction

The odds from the bookmakers clearly favor Botev Plovdiv at 1.53, while a draw pays 2.40 and an away win is available at 4.75. These numbers imply a comfortable margin for the home side. Combining the odds, the strong form (four wins in five), and their overall 12-7 head-to-head advantage, our Botev Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa prediction is a home win. However, the recent H2H results (two losses in the last two meetings) inject a note of caution. Still, with Plovdiv’s attacking form and Vratsa’s struggles, we expect the favorites to come out on top.