Boyaca Chico - Atletico Bucaramanga prediction 24 October 2026

Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Bucaramanga prediction for the Primera A fixture on October 24, 2026 sees Atletico Bucaramanga as the likely winner with a 42% win probability. The match at Estadio La Independencia in Tunja kicks off at 00:00, and based on recent form and head-to-head record, the visitors hold a clear edge.

Team Form

Boyaca Chico's Last 5 Matches

• Oct 17: Boyaca Chico 1-4 Atletico Nacional Medellin (L)
• Oct 12: Boyaca Chico 0-1 Cucuta Deportivo (L)
• Oct 3: Deportes Tolima 0-0 Boyaca Chico (D)
• Sep 26: Boyaca Chico 3-0 Deportivo Pasto (W)
• Sep 19: Club Deportivo Los Millonarios 3-0 Boyaca Chico (L)

Boyaca Chico have managed only one win in this period, scoring just 4 goals while conceding 8. Two consecutive home defeats and a heavy away loss highlight their struggles.

Atletico Bucaramanga's Last 5 Matches

• Oct 18: Atletico Bucaramanga 1-1 America de Cali (D)
• Oct 14: Atletico Bucaramanga 1-1 Rionegro Aguilas (D)
• Oct 5: Atletico Bucaramanga 3-1 CD Junior FC (W)
• Sep 26: Once Caldas 1-3 Atletico Bucaramanga (W)
• Sep 20: Atletico Bucaramanga 2-0 Inter Bogota FC (W)

Atletico Bucaramanga are unbeaten in five matches (3W,2D), scoring 10 goals and conceding only 4. Their away performances include a convincing 3-1 win and a solid away draw, underlining their strong form on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The last five meetings between Boyaca Chico and Atletico Bucaramanga show the visitors’ recent superiority:

• Apr 13, 2026: Atletico Bucaramanga 5-0 Boyaca Chico
• Jul 13, 2025: Atletico Bucaramanga 1-1 Boyaca Chico
• Jun 10, 2025 (Cup): Atletico Bucaramanga 3-2 Boyaca Chico
• Jan 24, 2025: Boyaca Chico 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga
• Nov 6, 2024: Boyaca Chico 1-1 Atletico Bucaramanga

Overall, across all competitions, Atletico Bucaramanga lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Boyaca Chico’s 5, with 3 draws. The most recent clash ended in a 5-0 away defeat for Boyaca Chico, and they have won only one of the last five encounters.

Win Probability: Boyaca Chico or Atletico Bucaramanga?

We calculated the outcome probabilities using the average betting odds and adjusted them for current form and head-to-head data. Atletico Bucaramanga has a 42% chance of winning, the draw stands at 38%, and Boyaca Chico has just a 20% chance. The bookmakers’ raw odds implied a close contest, but Atletico Bucaramanga’s five-game unbeaten run, the 5-0 demolition in the last H2H, and Boyaca Chico’s poor home form (two losses and a draw in their last three at Estadio La Independencia) justify increasing the visitors’ win probability. A draw remains a strong possibility given both teams’ recent results, but the visitors are the more likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds average around 3.40 for a Boyaca Chico win, 2.53 for a draw, and 2.49 for an Atletico Bucaramanga victory. These numbers reflect the market’s view of the away side as favorites, with a high chance of a share of the points. Taking all available data into account, our prediction leans toward an away win for Atletico Bucaramanga, but the match could easily end in a draw if Boyaca Chico tighten up defensively.