Chonburi FC - Buriram United prediction 20 September 2026

Chonburi FC vs Buriram United prediction for the Premier League match on Sep 20, 2026, at 11:00. Buriram United are the clear favorites with a 55% win probability, while Chonburi FC have just a 20% chance and the draw stands at 25%.

Team Form

Chonburi FC come into this match in poor form, having lost their last three matches. Their most recent result was a 2-3 home defeat to Rayong FC on Sep 13, followed by a 0-1 loss away at Chiangrai United on Sep 05 and a 0-2 defeat at Padriew City in a friendly on Aug 12. The only win in their last five came against Nakhon Ratchasima FC (2-1) on May 10, with a 2-2 draw at Dragon Pathumwan Kanchanaburi FC on May 02 rounding out the sequence.

Buriram United are unbeaten in their last five outings, though three of those ended in draws. They drew 1-1 away at Johor Darul Takzim (AFC Champions League) on Sep 15 and 1-1 at home vs Chiangrai United on Sep 11. A 3-1 win at Sukhothai Wittayakom School on Sep 06 was encouraging, and they also beat Port FC 2-1 and drew 3-3 with Sisaket United FC in friendlies in late August.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record heavily favors Buriram United, who have 14 away wins compared to just 3 home wins for Chonburi FC, with 4 draws. In the five most recent meetings, Buriram United won the latest clash 5-0 at home on Mar 14, 2026, while Chonburi FC won 4-2 at home on Nov 09, 2025. The other three matches were a 1-1 draw on Mar 10, 2024, a 2-2 draw on Oct 08, 2023, and a 2-0 home win for Buriram United on Jan 29, 2023.

League Table Positions

Buriram United currently sit 4th in the Premier League with 4 points from 2 matches (1 win, 1 draw), scoring 4 goals and conceding 2. They are among the early‑season frontrunners. Chonburi FC are not listed in the provided top 12 of the overall standings, indicating they are likely in the lower half of the table, which further underlines their underdog status coming into this fixture.

Win Probability: Chonburi FC or Buriram United?

Based on the latest odds, team form, head‑to‑head record, and league positions, the estimated win probabilities are: Chonburi FC 20%, Draw 25%, Buriram United 55%. The odds imply a clear advantage for Buriram United (around 48% when removing the bookmaker margin), and the adjustment upward to 55% reflects their dominant H2H history (14 away wins) and Chonburi’s three‑match losing run. The draw holds a significant chance at 25%, while Chonburi’s 20% is largely due to home advantage, despite their poor recent form and absence from the top of the table.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Buriram United as the favorite with odds as low as 1.48 at some bookmakers, with the draw offered at 2.50 and a Chonburi win priced at 6.00. The best available odds are: Chonburi FC 6.00, Draw 2.50, Buriram United 1.88. These betting tips suggest backing the away side based on the stats. Our Chonburi FC vs Buriram United prediction leans towards a Buriram United win, but the draw cannot be ruled out given their recent tendency to split points (three draws in five games). A scoreline of 1-0 or 2-1 to Buriram United looks likely based on the total goals trend in recent encounters.