Alfreton Town - Bury prediction 10 October 2026

Alfreton Town vs Bury prediction for the Northern Premier League match on Oct 10, 2026, at 15:00. Based on the latest odds and team form, Bury is the favorite with a 40% win probability, while Alfreton Town has a 35% chance and the draw stands at 25%.

Team Form

Alfreton Town's recent form shows three wins and two losses in their last five matches. They beat FC United of Manchester 1-0 at home on Oct 6, lost 3-1 away to Redcar Athletic on Oct 3, defeated Guiseley 1-0 at home on Sep 29, won 2-1 at home against Shifnal Town in the FA Trophy on Sep 26, and lost 1-0 away to Bamber Bridge on Sep 12. At home, Alfreton have been strong, winning four of their last five, with the only defeat coming against Redcar Athletic.

Bury's last five results: a 1-0 away loss to Stockton Town on Oct 6, a 2-1 home win over Bromsgrove Sporting in the FA Cup on Oct 3, a 3-3 home draw with Gainsborough Trinity in the FA Trophy on Sep 26, a 5-1 home win against Workington in the FA Cup on Sep 19, and a 4-0 home victory over AFC Emley on Sep 12. Bury have won three, drawn one, and lost one, with the only defeat coming in their most recent away game.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no head-to-head record available between Alfreton Town and Bury. According to the data, the teams have not met in recent history, so this will be a first encounter in the Northern Premier League.

League Table Positions

In the Northern Premier League standings, Bury sit 8th with 16 points from 9 matches (5 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses), while Alfreton Town are 11th with 15 points from 11 games (5 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses). Bury have a game in hand and a superior goal difference (+11 vs +4). Alfreton's home form is impressive: they are 4th in the home table with 12 points from 5 games (4 wins, 1 loss), scoring 11 and conceding only 3. Bury's away record is not detailed in the top eight of the away standings, but their overall away performance suggests they are competitive.

Win Probability: Alfreton Town or Bury?

Based on the bookmaker odds (home win 3.00–3.05, draw 3.40–3.70, away win 1.95–1.98), the implied probabilities after removing the margin are approximately 30% for an Alfreton Town win, 25% for a draw, and 45% for a Bury win. However, Alfreton's strong home record (4 wins in 5) and Bury's recent away loss to Stockton Town suggest a closer contest. After adjusting for form and home advantage, we estimate the following win probabilities: Alfreton Town 35%, draw 25%, Bury 40%. Bury remains the most likely winner, but Alfreton's home strength makes an upset possible.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Bury as the favorite for this Northern Premier League clash. The best odds available are around 1.95 for an away win, 3.40–3.70 for the draw, and 3.00–3.05 for a home win. Based on the stats, Bury is expected to edge this match, but Alfreton Town's solid home defense (only 3 goals conceded in 5 home games) could keep the score low. A 1-0 or 2-1 victory for Bury, or a 1-1 draw, are plausible outcomes. The total goals market may lean towards under 2.5 goals given both teams' defensive records.